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CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Monday, November 09, 2009
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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17 Comments:
Hopefully that never happens.
So does that make Bernanke Obama's Gorbachev?
Well, right now Wall Street loves Obama. New high for 2009. I say we see 14,000 on the Dow in four years.
Wall Street fears Obamanomics. Wall Street loves Obama's inability to ram through his economy wrecking agenda.
I think it's been doing a good enough job to collapse on it's own.
"wall st loves obama"?
what are you smoking benny? we hate that guy. he and his little dog timmy are a a nightmare, as are the congressional buffoon squad of pelosi, reid, frank, et al. even those from the street who were fooled into thinking obama was a moderate during the election have now seen his true colors and are pretty pissed off about the bait and switch.
the rally in healthcare yesterday was because the bill nancy rammed through is so obviously unpassable in the senate that consensus is now that there will be no health care bill this year. if they thought it was likely to pass, we'd be in freefall.
the overall rally is being driven by a dollar carry trade facilitated by ludicrously low interest rates and a weak dollar.
"Hopefully that never happens"...
Well if Kevin Hassett of Bloomberg was right it was already in the playbook of the Manchurian Cretin...
All one has to do is check the clown's track record...
Morgan-
Be not too sure. Wall Street tripled under Clinton, then did nothing for eight years of Bush.
Don't let personalities get in the way of seeing what is going to happen.
Sure, Clinton had a better luck--he and Rubin ran federal surpluses with the help of an R-Congress.
Still, Obama has a serious team of econimic advisors, and they show up for work.
I see recovery coming on Main St, and Goldman Sachs ain't going broke either.
Good times are ahead.
14k on the Dow in 2012.
BTW, that ain't so hot. We had 13k on the Dow in Clinton's last year. It will mark a 12-year sideways jigger-jagger.
1967-82 comes to mind.
"Be not too sure. Wall Street tripled under Clinton, then did nothing for eight years of Bush"...
ROFLMAO!
I guess you're still channeling Nancy Pelosi, eh?... LMAO!
Benny,
I think you may be guessing too low on the potential of the Dow. I can see it going higher, but more as an inflation hedge. You stated that 1967-82 was a flat time in the stock market. Actually, it lost about 75% over that time period in real dollars. We may see 14,000 on teh dow, but be down in real dollars.
Junkyard-
Yeah, you are right-rarely are people reminded that a steady investor in stocks 1967-82 did not do well, or in bonds either. It was an awful period--only real estate worked, and then iffily.
I think 2000-2012 is similar in some regards.
Tough to know where to invest. Gobs of capital on the sidelines. The world generates excess capital to invest.
Asia will boom, and I guess that is the best bet.
China appears invincible, but as an investment? Tough call.
The USA is water-logged in wars, a parasitic military, huge rural subsidies, an cruddy urban underclass, and who knows what else. Payroll taxes eat up a lot, and we are over-regulated.
Yet, the DJ could do well, as those companies have become multi-nationals.
Interesting times.
My guess is Asia ETFs, but who knows?
"The USA is water-logged in wars, a parasitic military, huge rural subsidies, an cruddy urban underclass, and who knows what else"...
Hmmm, still channeling Pelosi, eh pseudo Benny?
Juandos:
Actually, I am a free marketeer and libertarian. I dislike national health insurance, and the larded-up military, and rural subsidies, or subsidizing US subcultures that do not honor the work ethic before all else.
What worries me is that the US Republican party is deeply wedded to huge and ongoing rural subsidies in excess of $100 billion a year, and (aside from Ron Paul) seems entranced with a fat, ossified and patronage-ridden military that it is used by loonies (Bush)to embroil us in fanastically expensive overseas expeditions (such as our $1 trillion Iraqistan follies).
Some people think the R-Party will balance the budget and end federal subsidies. They are not thinking clearly. They are the source of the problem, hand-in-hand with the D-Party.
Benny makes some very good points regarding topics that most conservs - even some libertarians - with all their incessant free market rhetoric - never want to talk about: corporate welfare in the billions for agribusiness and the Haliburtons of the world, as in "no bid contracts". Gross hypocrisy.
"Benny makes some very good points regarding topics that most conservs - even some libertarians - with all their incessant free market rhetoric - never want to talk about: corporate welfare in the billions for agribusiness and the Haliburtons of the world, as in 'no bid contracts'"...
Well sethstorm I can't remember having read something from pseudo Benny that makes sense let alone has some connection to reality but then again I've not read his every comment I'm sure...
I've yet to heard a conservative (you know, one that actually believes in the Constitution) applaud ANY sort of entitlement...
I've heard plenty of RINOs carry on about it though...
Can you name a single conservative sethstorm that is for entitlements of any kind?
I'd appreciate it...
Thanks...
benny-
you think the president drives the dow?
what color is the sky on your world?
obama has serious advisers? you have to be kidding. geithner is a joke. summers should have been out ot pasture a decade ago. bernake is just another bubble denialist like greenspan. the only serous guy he has is volcker, who has ZERO policy influence. he was just included to try to add a veneer of credibility.
world assets are currently underpinned by a massive dollar carry trade. as soon as US rates go up, you'll see a synchronized global decline in asset prices.
we are now in an era of concatenated bubbles driven by massively loose US monetary policy which, in turn, is driven by the BLS's systematic alteration of the CPI calculation so that it massively understates inflation.
when all this is said and done, alan greenspan will go down in history as the man who destroyed the modern financial system.
I'm calling the Pun Police
!
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