Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Intrade odds for the contract "Health Care Reform - Will a federal government run health insurance plan (a public option) be approved in the US?" (by December 2009) have fallen to 7.1%, from almost 50% in August (see chart above, click to enlarge).
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
3 Comments:
The “Public Option” within Health Insurance Reform (aka Health Care Reform) has Intrade odds which have dropped from 50% (August) to 7.1% (Current)? Wow!
Wonder what the Intrade Odds are of the White House discontinuing the use of the phrase “jobs saved or created” now that the real unemployment rate is north of 16%?
I really detest her, but I wouldn't underestimate the power of Pelosi. She's certainly not above doling out billions in bribes.
A triggered plan does not qualify under this contract so 7% seems way too high. But I guess it's a better bet than many in Vegas.
At this point the media should be asking, "what exactly are we trying to do with this bill?" Along with, "does it accomplish any of those goals?" And finally, "in light of what it does accomplish, does the price tag seem reasonable?"
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