Healthcare Odds: From 48% to 17% in 84 Days
Intrade contract: "A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009." CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Intrade contract: "A federal government run health insurance plan to be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009." About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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6 Comments:
Would love this to be the case but it seems like the Democrats have the vote to pass a bill even if most of the country doesn't care for it.
The intrade contract seems to be about a public option/plan and not requiring people to join a plan (which would not be 'government run'). I'm a little confused as to what this contract is actually about. The public option won't pass.
Steve,
I'm not sure that's the case. Lieberman (I) has defected which negates Snowe's support for obamacare. It's also not clear how 'Blue Dog' Democrats will end up voting. It's not all that popular...polling shows fewer support obamacare than oppose it (43, 47% was one recent one). This a big reason why Reid is discussing the 'nuclear' option to negate the need for 60 votes in the Senate (to end debate).
When the house and the senate meet to 'reconcile' their bills it's going to go much more left with higher penalties for not getting insurance (insurance industry is not happy with the low penalties in the Baucus bill...big adverse selection problem when they will now take anyone regardless of preexisting conditions). It's hard to believe they will maintain the support they have...if it goes much further left it's going to die.
The odds for Fama getting the Nobel prize in economics were 2/1. Look at what the odds got him.
The contract is for a government run insurance as an alternative to private insurance. A trigger does not count for this contract and neither does a Co-Op even if run initially by the government.
Note that just an increase in Medicaid or Medicare does not count since they already exist.
They need a long term contract for the same conditions. Say a 5 year contract for a government run insurance plan. Basically a contract on whether there will actually be one by the time benefits start in around 2015.
While I hope it's correct, it's a sudden, momentary dip at this point. The graph has shown them before. ca. Aug 17, for example.
Unfortunately for our wallets, the dems have decided to use the nuclear option
Once the senate clears the 60 vote cloture, its a simple 51 vote for passage. Then the 'Reconcilliation" process gets to add or subtract anything.
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