Chicago Fed Index Increases for 8th Straight Month and Suggests That The Recession is Over

CHICAGO FED -- At –0.63 in September (up from –0.96 in the previous month), the index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. However, the CFNAI-MA3 in September improved to a level greater than –0.70 for the first time since the early months of this recession. For the four previous recessions, the first month when the CFNAI-MA3 was above –0.70 coincided closely with the end of each recession as eventually determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (see top chart above showing the last three recessions).

MP: The bottom chart above shows the monthly change in the CFNAI-MA3, which has been positive for the last eight months (February through September), the first time since 1975 of eight consecutive monthly increases, and similar to the seven consecutive monthly increases from December 2001 to June 2002 that marked the end of the 2001 recession (see shaded areas).