Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Unemployment claims were reported today by the Department of Labor, showing that the 4-week moving average fell 11,000 to 553,500, the lowest level since late January, 34 weeks ago (see graph above). Weekly claims (4-week average) have fallen in 10 of the last 13 weeks.
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
8 Comments:
While the trend looks good, the numbers are still ridiculously high compared to early 2008.
Even the White House, optimists in most respects, expect unemployment to reach 10% this year.
A trend means nothing if we don't consider the underlying causality.
Trending better from a position of terrible is usually pretty easy and not something worth bragging about just yet.
Exhaustion Rate Hits New Record: More Than Half Of Unemployed Exhaust Benefits Before Finding A Job
Celebrating might be a little premature. And I'm guessing many recipients who have exhausted benefits, as mentioned above, may skew some numbers.
-bobble-
...bobble, you hit the nail right on the head!; Thank You.
Don't confuse exhaustion of unemployment benefits with initial claims. The two are unrelated. Exhaustion affects CONTINUING claims.
Don't confuse the unemployment rate with initial claims (or vice versa). The former is subject to sample and survey error. It also underestimates those marginally attached to the labor force. The latter is affected by eligibility.
Payroll employment is still falling and THAT is all that matters. The rest is smoke and mirrors.
Are the numbers claims filed or claims approved? There are consulting firms that specialize in helping employers terminate employees in a manner that makes them ineligible for unemployment.
I know a gal that was terminated and got unemployment for 12 weeks (approved by her employer). The company then rewrote her employment file and appealed her unemployment with the state. She lost the appeal and had to pay back the 12 weeks of unemployment with a 16% state service fee plus a 16% interest rate.
There are consulting firms that specialize in helping employers terminate employees in a manner that makes them ineligible for unemployment.
Mind naming them?
Do they also go with similar tactics to bring in H1-b labor, since it sounds like it shares some of the same dishonest tactics.
Posting anonymous due to the company in question:
There might be some truth to Michael's claims. While it is not the most impartial source, it does provide a name, TALX.
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