Friday, September 18, 2009

Philadelphia Fed Survey: All Broad Indicators Positive for the First Time Since November 2007

Philadelphia Fed -- The region’s manufacturing sector is showing some signs of stabilizing, according to firms polled for this month’s Business Outlook Survey. Indexes for general activity, new orders, and shipments all registered slightly positive readings this month. For the first time since November 2007, all of the survey’s broad indicators were positive.

Although firms reported continued declines in employment and work hours this month, losses were not as widespread. Most of the survey’s broad indicators of future activity continued to suggest that the region’s manufacturing executives expect business activity to increase over the next six months.

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, increased from ‐7.5 in July to 4.2 this month. This is the highest reading of the index since November 2007 (see chart above). The percentage of firms reporting increases in activity (27%) was slightly higher than the percentage reporting decreases (23%). Other broad indicators also suggested improvement. The current new orders index edged six points higher, from ‐2.2 to 4.2, also its highest reading since November 2007. The current shipments index increased 10 points, to a slightly positive reading.

13 Comments:

At 9/18/2009 8:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Houston, we feel a pulse.

 
At 9/18/2009 8:47 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Why didn't George Bush's tax cut in 2008 get us out of this recession?

 
At 9/18/2009 10:26 AM, Blogger bobble said...

if manufacturing jobs are less than 9% of employment, how significant is this survey?

 
At 9/18/2009 1:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Q: "Why didn't George Bush's tax cut in 2008 get us out of this recession?"

A: Because it was a Keynesian stimulus - not a tax cut - and Keynesianism doesn't work - just as Obama's stimulus package hasn't worked.

Keynesianism is as up-to-date as the vacuum tube radio.

 
At 9/18/2009 2:15 PM, Blogger J. Wilson said...

"for the First Time Since November 2007"

Yes, and we all know how well things turned out after November 2007!

 
At 9/18/2009 2:44 PM, Anonymous Six Ounces said...

Wow, up two months in a row during the heaving throes of a struggling summer jolted by government cash. More things fall in Fall than leaves.

Did you happen to notice 42 states lost jobs from July to August and that SoCal and Bay Area home sales and prices also dropped over the month?

 
At 9/18/2009 3:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

jobs/employment never lead a recovery.

why would anyone expect this time to be different?

 
At 9/18/2009 4:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What do you mean? George Bush's tax cut financed my purchase of a Korean flat screen TV. What do you mean it didn't stimulate...it stimulated Korea, didn't it.

 
At 9/18/2009 5:33 PM, Anonymous Six Ounces said...

No, the unemployment rates never LED a recovery but until the last two recessions the unemployment rate dropping was ALWAYS coincident with the end of the recession.

Seasonally adjusted nonfarm employment has ALWAYS (including the last two recessions) bottomed out right at the end of the recession. This not a "coincidence" because the people who say when a recession has ended use nonfarm employment as one of their criteria. Nonfarm employment just fell again, hence no end of recession in July.

There are four coincident indicators. One is rising (IP due to C4C), one is flat (personal income less transfer payments), two are still falling. The MA Real GDP index rose in July but was about the same as May. Perhaps the end is nigh but it aint here yet. And there are a lot more innings left in this ballgame. Watch IP, home sales, home prices, CRE values plunge the rest of the year! The winter chill approaches.

When are you going to figure out that the term "recession" is arbitrary and the criterion for declaring it come and gone are capricious?

 
At 9/18/2009 5:58 PM, Blogger Methinks said...

Keynesianism is as up-to-date as the vacuum tube radio.

True. Here's another one about Keynesianism:

"Keynesian stimulus is like prescribing leeches to a hemophiliac"

 
At 9/18/2009 10:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Bush most certainly did cut taxes, it was not Keynesian in any way, shape or form, and those cuts will expire within two years.

Obama and Congress don't need to raise taxes. They just have to do nothing, an art they have perfected. We're going to see a double dip the likes of which we haven't seen since the Great Depression.

 
At 9/19/2009 3:04 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

A Republican President and Congress should have passed something like the Tax Realization Act, where taxes are paid separately. So, people will realize how much is paid on income taxes, social security taxes, medicare taxes, state taxes, sales taxes, sin taxes, gasoline taxes, property taxes, etc. It should be required that the tax money be waved in front of the taxpayer. Having tax collectors dressed like pirates may be going too far, except maybe on Apr 15th. Realization of government budget deficits should also be part of the Act. However, the U.S. may print money to inflate our way out of this debt. Nonetheless, inflation is a tax on everyone.

 
At 9/19/2009 1:16 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

There is also double taxation, e.g. capital gains taxes and estate taxes.

One unreported tax is the alternative minimum tax from capital gains. During the 2000 stock market sell-off, taxes on capital gains had to be paid the following year, which drained the economy of liquidity. Something similar may have happened in 2008 and 2009.

 

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