Jobless Claims Fall -103,500 in 4 Months; It's Looking A Lot Like The End of a Recession
WASHINGTON/WSJ -- The number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state jobless benefits fell last week, providing another glimmer of hope that the economy may be on the road to recovery. Initial claims for jobless benefits fell by 38,000 to 550,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ended Aug. 1, the Labor Department said in its weekly report Thursday. The four-week average of new claims, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, fell by 4,750 to 555,250, the lowest level since Jan. 24 (see top chart above).
MP: The bottom chart above shows the drop of -94,000 jobless claims (4-week moving average) in the six month period between October 2001 and March 2002 that signalled the end of the last recession. Compare that drop in jobless claims in 2001 to the -103,500 decline over the last four months and it's sure looking a lot like the end of the current recession.