Thursday, July 02, 2009

Web Search Volume for Layoffs Falls to 8 Mo. Low

Chart above (click to enlarge) shows the Web Search Volume (that is supposed to track "interest over time") for the term "layoffs," which fell in May to the lowest level since early October.

The chart below shows the alternative
Google Trends search volume and news reference volume for the term "layoffs."



See related CD post on Google Trend searches, and how they can predict economic activity.

5 Comments:

At 7/02/2009 12:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Try the word "unemployment."

 
At 7/02/2009 3:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Journalists" stopped searching for the term "layoff" when their golden boy was elected. Try "silver lining".

 
At 7/02/2009 3:31 PM, Blogger Robert Miller said...

"Unemployment" and "Silver lining"...Good ones!

Shares of "Green Shoots" were up in May but have fallen in June.

It's not surprising "layoffs" are down. This is basic microeconomics. When demand for output decreases, employers gradually reduce employment. When price drops below Average Total Cost, the firm is losing money but it still produces because it can recover a portion of its fixed costs. Employment will continue to slide downward gradually as demand falls. But when price is below Average Variable Cost, the loss minimization rule is to shut down.

So in the short run there is a floor on employment where Average Variable Cost is at its minimum. If price falls below that, then the firm shuts down and there will be a mass layoff event of all remaining workers.

Layoffs are yesterday's news. All the "easy" layoffs have been made already. As the recession lingers, firms will shut down and mass layoffs will resume.

The nation's largest employers have yet to make their difficult layoff decisions, but they are coming very soon:

State and Local governments.

 
At 7/02/2009 10:24 PM, Blogger BxCapricorn said...

RM nailed that one. As I read about today's brutal unemployment numbers, watched the countless interviews with "well wishing", "hopeful" people about to be demoted to the lower class for generations, I thought about this factoid. Google "homeless" and "las vegas". If you get 14,000 hits (and rising), you've got an indicator. In fact, you potentially have the fourth largest city in Nevada. The sounds of corks popping.....

 
At 7/03/2009 12:09 PM, Blogger sethstorm said...


RM nailed that one. As I read about today's brutal unemployment numbers, watched the countless interviews with "well wishing", "hopeful" people about to be demoted to the lower class for generations,

When you use evasionist tactics to send work to far-off places with unstable governments, you're part of that problem.

 

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