Tuesday, June 02, 2009

YTD Double-Digit Returns for Emerging Markets

The chart above shows the year-to-date returns for the emerging markets with double-digit stock market growth, from MSCI.

8 Comments:

At 6/02/2009 12:05 PM, Blogger misterjosh said...

Dang you're lazy perfesser! A casual look at the MSCI website indicates that if you look at the 1-year & 3-year (where available) the emerging markets are doing just as poorly as the developed markets, if not worse. As I recall, emerging were hit harder last year than developed. It seems reasonable to me that their improvement would be more dramatic.

I'm wondering if our potential hyperinflation will make these numbers even higher if counted in USD?

 
At 6/02/2009 12:07 PM, Blogger Size said...

I clicked on the comment section to say that those numbers are utterly meaningless unless they are put into context of prior years - especially last year.

There's a hedge fund in our town that lost 92% of its capital last year due to bad bets. It's up 50% YTD. Oh, Yippee.

 
At 6/02/2009 12:39 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did you two happen to see the chart Mark posted yesterday that shows the MSCI index going back to September 2008?

Dang you're lazy commentors.

 
At 6/02/2009 1:13 PM, Anonymous Benjamin said...

Who would buy Russian stocks? I thought we were becoming risk-averse, more prudent. Russian stocks?

 
At 6/02/2009 4:30 PM, Blogger Size said...

"Dang you're lazy commentors."

Each post should stand on its own and shouldn't require a commenter to dig through the archive on the off chance that the context for the post might be buried in there somewhere in the heap.

 
At 6/02/2009 10:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What emerging market stocks did one or two years ago is completely irrelevant to today. What they're signaling NOW - indeed, what ALL "riskier" assets have been signalling for many months - is the onset of a global economic recovery.

And just because emerging market stocks were hit harder LAST year doesn't necessarily mean they HAVE to improve more dramatically THIS year. If the global economy was going down the tubes, emerging market stocks would be getting killed.

As I said before, it's no longer a question of "Is the economy is going to recover?" It's, "How strong is this recovery going to be?" Judging by how quickly the data are improving, it's shaping up to be a doozy.

 
At 6/03/2009 10:48 AM, Blogger Size said...

"it's shaping up to be a doozy."

Of a bubble!

 
At 6/03/2009 10:53 AM, Blogger Size said...

And you're wrong Anon, 10:45.

For example, if a market fell by 98% over one or two years and then doubled the third year, the doubling on such an incredibly low base is not impressive and signals something much less than a "doozy" of a global economic upturn.

 

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