Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Falling Intrade odds for Bernanke's reappointment as Fed chair, from 75% to 60% in 17 days:
Posted @ 9:03 AM Post Link
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Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. Perry is currently on sabbatical from the University of Michigan and is a visitor at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
4 Comments:
I can't imagine Ben Bernanke not being reappointed. Who else?
Easy to read his mind
If he begins hiking rates after his second coronation, he enjoys his job. If he raises rates before the re-coronation, he is trying to get fired without his wife getting wise.
"I can't imagine Ben Bernanke not being reappointed. Who else?"
To me, it looks like Larry Summers will probably get the job.
None of these odds matters a bit. The outcomes will not be decided by the roll of some dice or the decision of millions of people. One man will decide the former and a small group of men will decide the latter. Both of these decisions will be made as political decisions, not as a leadership decision or an economic reality.
The Business Cycle Dating Committee abandoned any objective measure of "recession" a long time ago. By the traditional definition, this recession didn't even begin until 3rd quarter 2008.
There is no doubt there was weakness in 4Q07 and it's clear (now) there was an impending financial crisis, but the positive GDP growth, exports, production, and employment in the first and second quarters of 2008 make today's "green shoots" look like moss.
If you had to choose between living in a world stuck in 1Q 2008 or 1Q 2009, which would you choose?
If we knew in 1Q08 what we know now and we held the reigns of government, don't you think much of the pain since then could have been avoided?
Hindsight is 20/20, but so is the vision of the NBER BCDC.
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