Sunday, May 03, 2009

ECRI: Recession Likely Over By End of Summer

NEW YORK, April 30 (Reuters) - The longest U.S. recession in a half century will probably end before the summer is out, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Thursday.
The research group, whose leading indicators have a solid track record of predicting turns in the business cycle, said enough of its key gauges have turned upward to indicate with certainty that a recovery is coming.

Lakshman Achuthan of ECRI states: With the level of the Weekly Leading Index in an upswing for seven weeks now (see top chart above), an end to the U.S. recession is now in clear sight.

TheStreet.com -- The end of this recession -- the most severe downturn since World War II -- is finally in sight. This is the clear message from Economic Cycle Research Institute's array of leading indices of the U.S. economy.

The "giant error of pessimism" is now rampant. This is why many will be blind to the light at the end of the tunnel that marks the exit from this recession. But to ECRI's array of objective leading indices, designed specifically to spot recessions and recoveries, the end of the recession is now in clear sight.

7 Comments:

At 5/03/2009 2:13 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

Has anyone with any rational skills not been predicting this for around the last six months, now?

 
At 5/03/2009 4:58 PM, Blogger Dave Narby said...

Unfortunately the indicators needed to put in a bottom have not yet happened.

We need single digit P/E's in major indexes, and for them to stay conclusively above an 89 day EMA, and home builder sentiment to rise significantly.

But I could be wrong, and if you think so, put your money where your mouth is and go long and strong... Hey, it's gonna be over by September, right? : p

 
At 5/03/2009 5:06 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just got back from a trip to Costco. Parking lot: FULL (had to circle to find a space). Shopping carts: NONE (had to go back to the parking lot to find one). Registers: shoppers backed up 5 deep (all registers open).

Just an observation, but we haven't witnessed this in more than a year. And, our county's unemployment rate is in the top 10. Hmmmm....

 
At 5/03/2009 6:12 PM, Blogger ya feckin said...

So the massive budget deficits (still sitting in congress, no?) wasn't needed after all. And we'll pick up all that debt for nothing?

 
At 5/03/2009 8:57 PM, Anonymous Mika said...

Wow! It only took him 100 days! Whatta prez!

 
At 5/03/2009 11:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I pray that with proof the economy is recovering that cooler heads will prevail and the stimulus spending will get a second look.

I know, I know, not a chance in hell of that happening now that the camel has his head under the tent. But, worth a prayer just the same.

 
At 5/04/2009 6:36 AM, Blogger 1 said...

Funny how these supposed credible sources seem to forget that a real economy killer is lurching around in the House right now...

 

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