Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Posted 9:12 AM Post Link
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Sure, Scott. That's why the stress tests for the too big to fail banks baseline case (not adverse case) is a 14% decline in the Case Shiller-10 index in 2009.Sure Scott, that's why new homebuilders have 12.2 months worth of inventory, NAR has 9.7 months of inventory, the single family vacancy rate of 2.9% is at 50 year highs and Frannie (50% of all mortgage outstandings) has terminated foreclosure moratoria after 3+ months.Sure Scott. Dream on.Cross-posted at scottgrannis.
With the current inventory overhang, I'd put the chances that the housing market has bottomed at 0.00%. Inventory is at record highs -- even with affordability at record highs. Attitudes toward homeownership have shifted. No way that market's bottomed.
I still haven't figured why the 4 largest MSA in the USA (Philly) does not figure in this index. In 2008, Pittsburgh home price increased a modest 1%. Most of Pennsylvania,while we are affected, has an extremely moderate housing downturn. While unintentional, Case-Shiller overstates the housing problem as it includes all the bubble real estate markets but none of the moderation cities.Another example is Raleigh versus Charlotte. Charlotte has two of US's top 10 banks. It is going to look bad in Charlotte now. But Raleigh real estate market is up slightly.
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Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan.
Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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