Tuesday, April 07, 2009

The Housing Market Has Bottomed

According to Scott Grannis, the two charts above make the case that the housing market has seen the worst of its decline, which started over three years ago. Read why here.


At 4/07/2009 11:35 AM, Blogger stilettoheels said...

Sure, Scott. That's why the stress tests for the too big to fail banks baseline case (not adverse case) is a 14% decline in the Case Shiller-10 index in 2009.

Sure Scott, that's why new homebuilders have 12.2 months worth of inventory, NAR has 9.7 months of inventory, the single family vacancy rate of 2.9% is at 50 year highs and Frannie (50% of all mortgage outstandings) has terminated foreclosure moratoria after 3+ months.

Sure Scott. Dream on.

Cross-posted at scottgrannis.

At 4/09/2009 7:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

With the current inventory overhang, I'd put the chances that the housing market has bottomed at 0.00%. Inventory is at record highs -- even with affordability at record highs. Attitudes toward homeownership have shifted. No way that market's bottomed.

At 4/10/2009 10:32 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

I still haven't figured why the 4 largest MSA in the USA (Philly) does not figure in this index. In 2008, Pittsburgh home price increased a modest 1%. Most of Pennsylvania,while we are affected, has an extremely moderate housing downturn. While unintentional, Case-Shiller overstates the housing problem as it includes all the bubble real estate markets but none of the moderation cities.

Another example is Raleigh versus Charlotte. Charlotte has two of US's top 10 banks. It is going to look bad in Charlotte now. But Raleigh real estate market is up slightly.


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