Saturday, February 14, 2009

Chart of the Day: The Jobless Rate Gap

We've still got a long way to go.

10 Comments:

At 2/14/2009 11:39 PM, Anonymous t jefferson said...

http://www.mint.com/blog/finance-core/a-visual-guide-to-the-financial-crisis-unemployment-rates/

Its too bad a few Professors couldn't get a taste of the unemployment line.

 
At 2/14/2009 11:53 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

The way unemployment is being measured has been changed. If we used the same methods today as were used before the changes were made we would find out that unemployment is almost at the level that was seen in the early 1980s.

 
At 2/14/2009 11:58 PM, Blogger save_the_rustbelt said...

For you youngsters, one big difference is that there was not a sublayer of chronic UNDERemployment in the early 1980s, as there is today.

 
At 2/15/2009 12:05 AM, Blogger fboness said...

"If the current unemployment rate was calculated as it was 80 years ago..."

Golly gee, jefferson and VangeIV, maybe if auto mileage was calculated the way it was 80 years ago we could measure it in cords of wood run through a Stanley Steamer.

 
At 2/15/2009 12:40 AM, Anonymous t jefferson said...

Nice try boneless. The finance people still measure wealth by the Indexes: you know the S&P 500, Russel 200 and the Dow 500, not much has changed for the past hundred years until they are rebalanced its the same with the unemployment rate.

 
At 2/15/2009 4:00 AM, Blogger 1 said...

"Its too bad a few Professors couldn't get a taste of the unemployment line"...

Hmmm, and you know that there aren't professors standing line?

"If we used the same methods today as were used before the changes were made..."...

What were those alledged changes?

"one big difference is that there was not a sublayer of chronic UNDERemployment in the early 1980s, as there is today"...

Hmmm, more Henrietta Hughes, eh?... ROFLMAO!

 
At 2/15/2009 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The jobless rate gap is 2.2% for workers aged 25+ (85% of the labor force).

For workers aged 25+ the jobless rate in January 1982 was 6.4% peaking in December at 8.6% (the cycle peak).

For workers aged 25+ the jobless rate in January 2009 is 6.4%. Will this jobless rate cycle peak before 8.6%?

If one is to compare jobless rates over time, one must decompose the labor force. The python swallows the pig.

Now back to your crayons, juandos.

 
At 2/15/2009 4:15 PM, Blogger Dave Narby said...

Even disregarding the other observations about underemployment and the way unemployment is calculated...

Looking at that chart, I'd say we have about 9 months before we're caught up.

 
At 2/16/2009 9:28 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Eighty years ago? We don't need to go that far back to see the changes to the way that unemployment is counted. Until the Clinton administration changed the methodology discouraged workers who were willing and able to work but had given up looking were counted as unemployed. When the Clinton administration changed the rules workers who have given up because they can't find a job are no longer counted. Add the underemployed who can't find full time jobs, the effects of the birth/death model and other biases and the true unemployment rate in the US is at least 6% higher than what is being reported.

 
At 2/16/2009 9:18 PM, Blogger 1 said...

Per his/her/its usual style another link (2.2%) doesn't work...

Good job anon!

"For workers aged 25+ the jobless rate in January 2009 is 6.4%. Will this jobless rate cycle peak before 8.6%?"...

Hmmm, depends on whether these people will have the skills that are wanted in the market place, right?

"If one is to compare jobless rates over time, one must decompose the labor force. The python swallows the pig."...

Again your assesment of the what's posted at your link has nothing to do with what the document is about...

A graduate of the government run madrassas are you?

If you are any indication of the GenX or later crowd, no wonder their unemployment numbers are higher than they need to be...

Thanks for playing...

 

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