Saturday, November 29, 2008

No Real Estate Bubble in Central U.S.A.


The top chart above (click to enlarge) shows the OFHEO House Price Indexes for Nevada, South Dakota, Texas and North Dakota, just recently updated through the third quarter 2008.

The bottom chart above shows the regional OFHEO House Price Indexes for the Pacific Census region (Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, and Washington), the West South Central region (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas), the West North Central region (Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, North Dakota, Minnesota, South Dakota and Missouri) and the East South Central region (Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, and Tennessee).

Bottom Line: The way it gets reported by the media, you would think that the entire country is suffering from the devastating effects of a real estate bubble, when in fact the worst problems are concentrated in a handful of states like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida. The fifteen states in the three regions representing the entire middle part of the country have not experienced a real estate bubble, and the home price indexes for those regions show a historically consistent pattern of gradual home price increases over time, with a slight leveling off in recent quarters.

7 Comments:

At 11/29/2008 11:17 AM, Blogger BDHumbert said...

And even in the Pacific what we have seen is a return to the values of 2005 - when you look at the curves it would seem that the Pacific is still ahead in overall wealth increase - having had a much steeper run up from 2000 to 2005...

Of course if that equity increase was spent....

 
At 11/29/2008 11:50 AM, Blogger M.G. said...

So do you mean that a handful of states like California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida screwed up the world economy?

 
At 11/29/2008 12:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

[West North Central] regions show a historically consistent pattern of gradual home price increases over time, with a slight leveling off in recent quarters.

Nice try. But the statement is false.

West North Central Region - a repeat of the early 1980s double dip recession.

West South Central Division - will it follow the mid-1980s oil bust?

East South Central Division - it's the early 1990s recession show.

Pacific Region - an unprecedented disaster.

 
At 12/01/2008 3:37 PM, Blogger nordaune said...

That market has stay relatively stable in Rochester MN ... but we have a constant stream of people moving in and out due to the Mayo Clinc.

 
At 12/07/2008 3:16 PM, Blogger Allen said...

Gotta love anonymous comments that call you out as wrong especially when what they show at best shows minor differences in exactly what is happening.

 
At 2/23/2009 4:22 PM, Anonymous big bear property said...

The real estate business is relatively affected by economic crisis. However, the effects on the real estate industry as well as on the economy are temporary as the new administration and economic stimulus is on the process.

 
At 2/23/2009 4:38 PM, Anonymous Real estate properties,Philippines said...

Though the real estate industry is increasing,the actual sales in the properties is actually unstable.

 

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