Thursday, October 02, 2008

What Happened? From A McCain Lead 3 Wks. Ago, To A Tie 2 Wks. Ago, To A 31 Point Lead for Obama

Just about three weeks ago, McCain had almost a 6-point lead over Obama on Intrade.com, about two weeks they were tied, and now Obama has more than a 31-point lead, and is almost a 2:1 favorite (see chart above).

25 Comments:

At 10/02/2008 5:07 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here's what happened; Palin seemed like a good choice until she was interviewed. Now everyone recognizes she's a moron and a massive liability. McCain is dead meat. Sayonara sucker

 
At 10/02/2008 5:24 PM, Blogger BlogDog said...

Apart from mouth breathers like anonymous there gaming Intrade, the media continue to cover for the fact that the Democrats using government for social engineering is the root cause of this meltdown.
As for vice presidential nominees, only one moron thinks FDR appeared on TV when the stock market crashed. Oh, I'm sorry - not a moron - brilliant!

 
At 10/02/2008 5:42 PM, Blogger Bill said...

Did anyone mistake Intrade's values for the actual opinion of the voters? At best, Intrade lags the voters due to a lack of qualitative information. It has many of the weak aspects of the stock market without the balancing strengths (lots of emotional betting, little quantitative analysis). As I recall, eras of high emotion betting and low quant. can lead to bubbles. Is this an Obama bubble?

 
At 10/02/2008 5:43 PM, Blogger Bill said...

I meant - lack of quantitative information. wish I could type.

 
At 10/02/2008 5:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If you're so sure Intrade is inaccurate why don't you make some money on it?

There's a good amount of research that shows that prediction markets are very accurate.

 
At 10/02/2008 6:19 PM, Anonymous Lars said...

It is all according to plan, lie about polls, attack opponent and influence the outcome. Welcome to the new Soviet Union comrads, where truth is what we say it is.

 
At 10/02/2008 6:35 PM, Blogger Bill said...

who said anything about being sure? Like I said - no data. How accurate was Intrade at predicting McCain's VP choice? Nevertheless, tonight's debate will be telling.

 
At 10/02/2008 9:02 PM, Anonymous Kevin said...

The stock market tanking and more widespread concern about economic problems is what happened!

McCain made a BIG mistake in not choosing Romney.

 
At 10/02/2008 9:28 PM, Blogger bobble said...

i don't hold intrade in high regard as a prognosticator . . .

that being said, the economy has crashed in bush's lap.

the right is frantically trying to spin this as a being caused by democratic social engineering.

whether or not that is true, bush has been in control for the last 7+ years and the result is a freeking trainwreck.

the general public generally blames the party in power when things go bad. intrade simply reflects the current economic situation.

 
At 10/02/2008 10:05 PM, Anonymous JGillman said...

Though I feel Bush is acting the FOOL in this event cycle, the fact is that it truly is "caused by democratic social engineering."

Oversight, a responsibility of proper regulation was DENIED by the congress in the last couple of years particularly when the dems controlled. Also look at some the other potential ethics violations such as Dodd's home, Pelosi's investments etc..

Current economics as a result of an insane GREEN agenda tops the cake. Spin? I think not. Simply calling it as I see it.

 
At 10/02/2008 10:13 PM, Blogger Jeff Lehner said...

Here's an Intrade chart for you guys:

As of this writing, Intrade contracts for "Barack Obama's Intrade value will increase more than John McCain's following the VP debate" are DOWN nearly twenty percent - and still falling.

Palin ate Biden's lunch tonight. 35 days is a long time to hold on to a lead. Obama's peaking too soon.

 
At 10/02/2008 10:18 PM, Blogger Jeff Lehner said...

Scratch that, contract has now dropped 20+ percent..

 
At 10/02/2008 10:24 PM, Anonymous qt said...

Time will tell.

Good luck with the Piped Piper of Hamlin assisted by the man whose foreign policy credentials included promoting the partitioning of Iraq.

Chances are you'll need it.

On the other hand, he will likely be writing another book on your time.

 
At 10/03/2008 12:25 AM, Blogger Ted Cossins said...

It would be nice if some lucid, intelligent comment had appeared on this thread. Why do people comment in gibberish, malformed sentences and the like. This is America. Let's all speak imn English, using full sentences to make our point - or just not speak at all!

The economy and your life-style are going down. This is a serious matter and no place for name calling and mumbling.

T.C.

 
At 10/03/2008 6:05 AM, Blogger Jeff Lehner said...

UPDATE:

Above-referenced Intrade chart - now down 70 percent since the end of last night's debate.

 
At 10/03/2008 6:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wait a second, are we criticizing a free and open market here? Why should you complain about the market price? The invisible hand has spoken. Or have some of you realized that there are limitations to markets?! (gasp!)

I propose the Carpe Diem System of voting: your vote is directly proportional to the amount of income tax you paid over the last four years. This way the bottom 50% of the population basically won't count and be able to implement their wealth redistribution communism schemes. After all, those welfare trash don't deserve a vote, and neither does anyone who got a 'negative tax'; ie net payment.

Finally we can implement some control over the dregs lest their populist rhetoric and mob mentality get out of hand. Its essential that we continue to cut taxes to eventually 0% on the top income bracket because this is proven by trickle-down economics to promote the most growth. What would the middle class do with a tax cut, spend it on beer? What a waste.

Clearly the tax cuts are needed on those who have condensed the most amount of wealth in this country, the top 1% and 5%, so that they can confidently deploy that wealth again in ways that expand our economy dramatically. This will help promote more wealth condensation to this class, which will ultimately stabilize the economy, as the middle classes simply have no clue how to use capital wisely; they just park it.

As Mark Perry as continually pointed out, we must also reduce the tax rate on corporations to 0% as well, as well as removing all regulations on corporations. The cost of complying with these regulations to too burdensome! Corporations should take personal responsibility for their books and balance sheets to ensure that they are accurate and correct and that their account practices are sound. OSHA and the EPA can also be removed here as well; if you're too stupid to wear a hard hat or get your hand chopped off, its your own fault for not having the personal responsibility to be aware and to be safe, regardless of what equipment your employer has provided you.

Continuing, as Mark Perry has advocated, we simply must abolish the minimum wage so that we can begin to hire workers at much lower wages finally and let corporations begin to recover. However in order for this to be effective, unions must also be made illegal at the same time so that they cannot fight this. Pension agreements should be scrapped and rewritten, and employer-provided health insurance is of course a thing of the past. Health care can be provided much more cheaply by the buses that Mark Perry has shown that the free market can provide us with.

But all of this can only happen if we prevent the majority of Americans who are in these lower classes, not shouldering their tax burden because of their natural genetic inability (and also pure laziness) to rise to the top of the Pareto distribution, from gaining control politically. If they are not stopped, wealth redistribution will occur and the condensation phenomena will be reverse, thus undermining the stability of the economy that has been the linchpin of the last 8 years.

 
At 10/03/2008 8:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Intrade showed similar odds on Bush/Kerry. Hey anonymous (first poster), put your money where your mouth is and lay out some cash if you're so confident Intrade is right. Let us know how that works out for you.

 
At 10/03/2008 8:24 AM, Anonymous RebelRenegade said...

Looks like he started to tank when Paulson came and asked for $700bn and sharks with frigging laser beams on their head to get us out of this credit crisis.

 
At 10/03/2008 8:50 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not rocket science: Couric interview, mortgage meltdown, Bush the lameduck, MSM in the tank for Obama...Will say this: you Dems, you better be careful what you wish for-with Dems controlling Washington....

 
At 10/03/2008 2:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Were things really that great with Republicans controlling washington? Is it that controversial to say that both parties have strengths and weaknesses on the economic front?

 
At 10/03/2008 2:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How big is the intrade market? More specifically, what would happen to the candidates values if (for example) George Soros were to buy 10 million dollars in contracts? Is there any way to tell how many trades are driving the prices?

 
At 10/03/2008 2:45 PM, Blogger Marko said...

I would rather have Republicans in charge not living up to their promise to shrink government, than democrats living up to their promise to growing government!

 
At 10/03/2008 4:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"How big is the intrade market? Is there any way to tell how many trades are driving the prices?"

Yes, its a basic concept in virtually any trading market called volume, which Intrade does indeed track and chart.

Predictive markets have many limitations, but that said, since Mark Perry has consistently referred to this contract-pair, those arguments have been valid across all of his Intrade-US-Election posts.

 
At 10/03/2008 4:09 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"I would rather have Republicans in charge not living up to their promise to shrink government, than democrats living up to their promise to growing government!"

Luckily you have had the best of both worlds: a Republican administration and Congress (for six years) that has grown government dramatically (think TSA, etc) and increased spending while cutting taxes, then leaving the mess to the next administration.

I believe that play is called *The Reagan*

 
At 10/03/2008 6:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who cares. There is no difference between the two. We will continue to get the same dumb liberal policies forced down our throats. Why? Because to compromise with a group so far left means your still left of center!

Just buy lots of guns and ammo. Prepare to shoot when they come to get your guns. Take that right and its came over.

Congrats. This is what you get when nobody cares and American Idol and iPods are more important than your country. A brave new "me" obsessed, value-less and moral-less society.

Welcome to the end.

 

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