CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Friday, June 27, 2008
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
Previous Posts
- Give Me a Break
- American Energy Policy
- Warren Buffett Can Pay Higher Taxes Right Now
- Median Home Prices Have Risen 3 Straight Months
- Alaska's Governor Supports Drilling in ANWR, OCS
- The $10,000 Cowboy Boot
- Let's Not Deport the Tech Talent
- Free Trade Is Just Like Technology: They Both Lowe...
- Alaska vs. USA; and ANWR vs. USA
- 2001:Excessive Speculation Drove Oil Prices Down?
9 Comments:
The mortgage servicers are finally getting around to unloading their REOs. Dataquick estimates that 38% of all resale home closings in May in California were foreclosures.
Looks like someone at the WSJ agrees with my post from yesterday.
Now. The question of the day is can we deal with $170 oil?
Well those who make a living in the housing market seem to be optimistic...
juandos...since when has Lawrence Yun ever been right about housing?
I do agree that the housing market will start to improve barring any massive shocks to the economy. It will improve even if oil is at $170 or unemployment at 8%. That much is painfully obvious.
"since when has Lawrence Yun ever been right about housing?"
Well maybe anon @ 11:08 AM you can tell me when Yun has been wrong...
The Lawrence Yun Watch
Yun is almost as hilarious as his predecessor, David Lereah, before he was put out to pasture.
Hey anon thanks for the links sir, much appreciated...
Interesting...
"I do agree that the housing market will start to improve barring any massive shocks to the economy. It will improve even if oil is at $170 or unemployment at 8%. That much is painfully obvious."
Some housing will improve, but some might not. If energy goes up another 50-100%, people will really start taking into account the utilities cost as well as the traditional PITI. I call the combination PITI-U. If PITI-U is more than you can afford, DON'T buy the house. Those 4000-5000 sq ft McMansions in cooler areas might cost $1000+ a month to heat in the winter, that could be more than the property taxes!
Those won't sell for very much.
Here is a longer term chart of sales of new homes and resale homes.
Regression to the mean suggests that resales will fall back or overshoot the blue trendline. Realtors should consider getting a part-time job for the foreseeable future.
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