Thursday, April 17, 2008

Recession Odds On Intrade Fall from 70% to 20.5%?

Not sure what's going on here, but the odds of a 2008 U.S. recession on Intrade.com just fell from 70% to 20.5%.

7 Comments:

At 4/17/2008 9:02 PM, Blogger David Damore said...

The factors that were leading people to believe there would be a recession [resets, foreclosures, etc] have been neutralized. As bad as things looked they never actually got as bad as feared.
So, if things seem stable and not getting worse, people are optimistic that things will get better soon.
Some [or maybe even many] firms are reporting some nice results.
Google took off like a rocket [in after hours trading] after releasing some solid results.

What are your thoughts and ideas?

 
At 4/17/2008 11:57 PM, Blogger Ironman said...

Perhaps because the time that a recession might take hold is running out? As projected nearly a year ago....

 
At 4/18/2008 12:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It seems to be back at 70 percent.

http://www.intrade.com/partners.jsp?ZID=1375&AID=1&CID=2&page=trade&selConID=508654

However, I read that anywhere from 20 to 80 percent is the same as "Not Sure," while under 20 percent is a solid "NO" and over 80 percent is taken as a solid "yes."

 
At 4/18/2008 6:05 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

It's still down at 20.5% for the closing price at 4/18/2008 at 7:05 a.m. EDT.

 
At 4/18/2008 6:19 AM, Blogger rosserjb@jmu.edu said...

But the TED spread is rising again, indicating renewed strain within the financial system, not to mention the fact that housing prices continue to fall in the US. This In Trade result looks just goofy.

Barkley Rosser

 
At 4/18/2008 6:24 AM, Anonymous Kevin Gunn said...

Looks like an error:

Last Price: 20.5
Buy at: 70.3
Sell at: 65.3

The buy/sell just doesn't reflect the last price. Makes me think it must be a bug.

 
At 4/18/2008 10:37 AM, Anonymous JH said...

I think it's an interesting bet. However, if I could suggest a contract, I'd suggest something like "US recession + trough in March" or something like that. If people are so strong on recession, it would be interesting to see what the markets say about the length (or the breadth) of the decline.

 

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