Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
The chart above (click to enlarge) shows the falling odds of a 2008 recession, based on futures trading on Intrade.com over the last 14 days. From a 70% chance of a 2008 recession on April 17, the odds have now fallen below 45%.
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
8 Comments:
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3848316.ece
The U.S. economy is still not in recession. Commerce Dept. released GDP figures for the first quarter which indicate slow growth (0.15%) but not negative growth.
Sluggish to be sure but still growth.
who cares...if we're in a "definitional recession". Relative to the growth we were accustomed this recent growth is dramatically lower over a small period of time....who cares if it meets the defition to the "t".
Liberals will say that the Bush Admin is manipulating the economic data to avoid a recession by definition!
It close the day @ 35.
who cares if it meets the defition to the "t"...
Hmmm, so the facts mean nothing to you, eh?
You don't work in the MSM do you?
Some either predicted a recession or wanted one to sling at the current administration. Now that a recession is not going to materialize, this is simply a way of saying "well, technically by those standards no, but in reality yes".
The economy GREW last quarter. It did not RECEDE. Isn't that a good thing, given all the gloom and doom, depression-era predictions?
From an article in today's WSJ entitled "The Prospect of Lingering in Purgatory":
"The U.S. seems suck in a sort of economic purgatory, somewhere between recession and expansion".
"If it isn't a recession, it feels nearly as bad - and it could linger".
Welcome to purgatory!
At least on intrade, the odds of recession have a very tight inverse relationship with the stock market, so not much value added. (I'd paste a chart but don't think I can here.)
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