Wednesday, April 30, 2008

Recession Odds Fall On Intrade

The chart above (click to enlarge) shows the falling odds of a 2008 recession, based on futures trading on Intrade.com over the last 14 days. From a 70% chance of a 2008 recession on April 17, the odds have now fallen below 45%.

8 Comments:

At 4/30/2008 4:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/economics/article3848316.ece

The U.S. economy is still not in recession. Commerce Dept. released GDP figures for the first quarter which indicate slow growth (0.15%) but not negative growth.
Sluggish to be sure but still growth.

 
At 4/30/2008 6:06 PM, Blogger ... said...

who cares...if we're in a "definitional recession". Relative to the growth we were accustomed this recent growth is dramatically lower over a small period of time....who cares if it meets the defition to the "t".

 
At 4/30/2008 7:03 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Liberals will say that the Bush Admin is manipulating the economic data to avoid a recession by definition!

 
At 4/30/2008 9:04 PM, Blogger David said...

It close the day @ 35.

 
At 5/01/2008 3:21 AM, Blogger juandos said...

who cares if it meets the defition to the "t"...

Hmmm, so the facts mean nothing to you, eh?

You don't work in the MSM do you?

 
At 5/01/2008 8:39 AM, Anonymous Is said...

Some either predicted a recession or wanted one to sling at the current administration. Now that a recession is not going to materialize, this is simply a way of saying "well, technically by those standards no, but in reality yes".

The economy GREW last quarter. It did not RECEDE. Isn't that a good thing, given all the gloom and doom, depression-era predictions?

 
At 5/01/2008 8:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

From an article in today's WSJ entitled "The Prospect of Lingering in Purgatory":

"The U.S. seems suck in a sort of economic purgatory, somewhere between recession and expansion".
"If it isn't a recession, it feels nearly as bad - and it could linger".

Welcome to purgatory!

 
At 5/01/2008 3:17 PM, Blogger Warren said...

At least on intrade, the odds of recession have a very tight inverse relationship with the stock market, so not much value added. (I'd paste a chart but don't think I can here.)

 

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