Sunday, March 16, 2008

4 Signs We Are Not In a Recession

James Pethokoukis, at US News & World Report writes, "I know we are supposed to be in a recession since Warren Buffett said so, but the data refuse to fully cooperate":

Sign #1: Jobless claims remain stubbornly low. Initial claims in the week ending March 8 were unchanged at 353,000, while the four-week average edged down to 358,500 from 359,750 (see chart above).

Read the other three signs that we are not in a recession here.

MP: Note also that First Trust Advisors said last week that "initial claims for unemployment insurance were unchanged at 353,000 last week, still well below the 400,000 mark that could signal recession."


At 3/16/2008 9:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

America was conned - who will pay?

The South Sea Bubble ended in riots as trust was lost. Wall Street also duped the public

In the UK the authorities are considering giving 'significant awards' to borrowers that have been missold mortgages that many of them are now struggling to repay.

Can the US be far behind?

In the US Fed cuts the discount rate on a Sunday and finances JP Morgan's purchase of Bear Stearns. Meanwhile against the euro, the dollar declined to $1.5841.

That alone means higher gas, food and gold prices.

Right now, Asian stock markets are falling like autumn leaves and the Bank of Indonesia is selling US dollars.

This running for the door panic selling is caused by good old fashioned insolvency in US financial institutions.

The fact is that Bear Stearns would have failed if the fed hadn't stepped in.

What's next? Nationalizing the housing market? Using taxpayer dollars to buy up bad loans?

So much for the decoupling true believers.

We have deflation in housing, inflation in food and energy, fewer people in the workplace and ultimately a recession.

At 3/17/2008 12:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your right we're going right into depression and a hyper-inflationary one at that.

At 3/17/2008 6:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Global stocks fell sharply and the dollar tumbled on Monday as a fire sale of Bear Stearns and an emergency Federal Reserve cut of a key lending rate sparked fears that a worldwide credit crisis will claim more casualties.

European shares sank more than 3 percent, following a sell-off in Asia where Japan's leading indexes shed more than 3.5 percent. Wall Street looked set for a sharply downward open.

The dollar hit new lows against the euro and a basket six of major currencies. Oil hit a new high of nearly $112 a barrel on the weaker dollar.

Investors dived into safe haven assets, lifting gold to more than $1,030 an ounce at one point and sending yields on short-dated euro zone debt below 3 percent for the first time in more than two years.

The FED can't stop this the only thing they will do is destroy the dollar trying.

At 3/17/2008 8:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

One sign we are in a recession: The plot of GDP over 7 years expressed in Euros NOT dollars.

At 3/17/2008 10:16 AM, Anonymous Is said...

Please explain how plotting the US GDP in Euros would provide an accurate representation of the growth (or lack thereof) of the US economy. Do you understand why this is a not-so-good idea? If we are going to start converting GDP to foreign currencies, I can probably show that every single economy in the world has been in a recession for the last 25 years. All one has to do is pick a day that one currency fell against any currency in the world.

At 4/23/2008 5:11 PM, Blogger GDS said...

What are our politician doing/
Nothing onliy making a good living on us, What about our President, only havong a good life with their friends. How long will americans accept this disaster as if we ate a third country..shame on all of you


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