Recession Odds Falling on Intrade.com
Recession odds have fallen by 12 points on Intrade.com over the last 4 weeks (see chart above, click to enlarge). CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Recession odds have fallen by 12 points on Intrade.com over the last 4 weeks (see chart above, click to enlarge). About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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- Impact of Cell Phones on Grain Markets in Niger
- Railroad Renaissance: Thanks in Part to China Trade
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- President John F. Kennedy, Early Supply-Sider
- Steven Landsburg: "Buy America" is Like Racism
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3 Comments:
Ha!
Another way of looking at it is that recession odds fell back to their level of 5 weeks ago on Intrade.com.
Or you could say that recession odds have soared by nearly 40% since January 1, 2008 on Intrade.com.
Good no recession, then the FED can start raising interest rates to fight inflation and protect the purchasing power of the dollar instead of lowering them more to bailout an insolvent banking industry that got us here in the first place.
As is always the case, there are lies, damn lies and statistics
It seems to me that the only way of truly knowing if there has been a recession is to look at the data retrospectively. After the event is of little use though!
Also, given the geography and economic diversity of the USA I perceive it is of limited value to talk of recession in terms of the entire nation. It would perhaps be more useful to look at individual states.
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