Sunday, February 17, 2008

Recession Odds Falling on Intrade.com

Recession odds have fallen by 12 points on Intrade.com over the last 4 weeks (see chart above, click to enlarge).

3 Comments:

At 2/17/2008 11:02 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ha!

Another way of looking at it is that recession odds fell back to their level of 5 weeks ago on Intrade.com.

Or you could say that recession odds have soared by nearly 40% since January 1, 2008 on Intrade.com.

 
At 2/17/2008 11:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good no recession, then the FED can start raising interest rates to fight inflation and protect the purchasing power of the dollar instead of lowering them more to bailout an insolvent banking industry that got us here in the first place.

 
At 2/17/2008 12:54 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As is always the case, there are lies, damn lies and statistics

It seems to me that the only way of truly knowing if there has been a recession is to look at the data retrospectively. After the event is of little use though!

Also, given the geography and economic diversity of the USA I perceive it is of limited value to talk of recession in terms of the entire nation. It would perhaps be more useful to look at individual states.

 

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