Tuesday, November 20, 2007

Goldilocks Rocks in NM, TX, LA, AL, AZ and ID

6 reasons the U.S. economy is not going into a recession:

1. New Mexico's jobless rate fell to an historical record low of 3.1% in October (see chart above, click to enlarge), according to state labor market data released today
by the BLS. October's rate of 3.1% was almost 3.8% below New Mexico's average unemployment rate of 6.9% from 1976-2007.

2. Texas' October jobless rate of 4.1% was also an historical record low that matched the May and June 2007 rates of 4.1%.

3. The October unemployment rate in Louisiana dropped to match a record low of 3.3% that was first achieved in July 2006.

4. As I
reported earlier, Alabama's unemployment rate of 3.1% established a new historical record low in October 2007.

5 and 6. Arizona and Idaho both set record low unemployment rates in September 2007 (3.3% and 2.3% repsectively).


6 Comments:

At 11/20/2007 12:45 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ooops....did you forget California?

 
At 11/20/2007 1:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Mr. Carpe Diem, you continue to smoke some SERIOUS crack. Keep relying on those government-generated jobs numbers! How about this: why don't you show us the % of birth/death jobs created as a percentage of total jobs created over the last twelve months? Or maybe you could explain to us how the actual unemployment rate calcultion methodology has changed since 1990? Seriously, you are embarassing yourself.

 
At 11/21/2007 6:35 AM, Blogger juandos said...

Forget California?!?! Isn't California TAXING itself out of the employment business or hadn't you noticed?

anon @ 1:46 p.m. whines: "Keep relying on those government-generated jobs numbers! How about this: why don't you show us the % of birth/death jobs created as a percentage of total jobs created over the last twelve months?"...

Why don't you? If YOU have more credible numbers (not Krugman numbers) than what the BLS has, roll them out!

Speaking of someone who should be embarassed about what he/she posts, have you no idea what your comment reads like?

Just curious, are you a Marxist?

 
At 11/21/2007 10:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Marxist? Hardly.

Listen, I apologize for being so caustic in my post above. That was wrong. That is not an efficient, effecitve, or polite way to communicate. So let me start over.

I believe the numbers out of Washington are totally politicized. TOTALLY. And they have been for years. If you take the time to go to John Williams' website and read it for yourself, you'll learn some interesting things. John's been tracking the changes in calculation methodologies for nearly thirty years, and he knows all the games being played. And it's not like the gov't is hiding the changes! The changes are all in the footnotes.

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=341

The link above explains how the jobs numbers are calculated and how that process has changed over the years to radically understate the jobless rate here in the USA.

http://www.shadowstats.com/cgi-bin/sgs/article/id=343

The link above explains how the CPI numbers are calculated and how that process has changed over the years to radically understate reported inflation.

http://www.shadowstats.com/pdf/779-626538446.pdf

The link above is an interview with John Williams by Kathryn Welling from Weeden. This is a great primer.

Beyond that, the most important thing is not necessarily to care what the real numbers are, IMO. The most important thing is to trade the tape. That's it. To rail against the numbers is fun, but it's really pointless if you want to make money.

And by the way, I do like Kudlow at market bottoms. It's when we are making a top that he's insufferable. He's blind to the biases of the data, blind to the implications of a market overshooting its rational endgame, willing to suspend disbelief for the sake of his own philosophy of America and the Republican party. Not that there's anything wrong with that! But there is (kinda) if you do want to paint an accurate picture of what is going on. And I'm a Libertarian.

 
At 11/21/2007 8:42 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hello again Anon and I guess I should've been a bit less caustic myself...

Now we have something to work with, something in common here: "Walter J. 'John' Williams"...

I stumbled across Walter John Williams while perusing, then studying Michael Hodge's site, Grandfather Economic Report, specifically the chapter called: STATISTICAL REVISIONISM AND WIZARDRY where Mr. Hodges noted that Williams showed some credible info regarding how various stats were being manipulated...

Both Williams and Hodges allude to the comments Marshall Auerback's comments (pages 10 & 11)of government intervention in the statistics of everything even remotely economic...

Have a happy Turkey Day...

 
At 11/23/2007 8:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Juandos, I hear ya! Thanks for the links. It is nice to see Mr. Williams' efforts validated. If I think about the revisionism too much it really begins to upset me. Okay, only happy thoughts, it's the holidays! Happy Thanksgiving to you guys.

 

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