Crude Oil Futures Trading Predicts Falling Oil Prices
According to futures trading for crude oil on the NYMEX, we can expect falling oil prices over the next three years, to $82 per barrel by late 2009 (see chart above).CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
According to futures trading for crude oil on the NYMEX, we can expect falling oil prices over the next three years, to $82 per barrel by late 2009 (see chart above).About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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8 Comments:
This has to be some kind of New Yorker cartoon.
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply ``crunch'' as soon as 2015, the International Energy Agency said.
Go long on crude oil futures contracts.
His convictions aren't *that* strong.
Oil is the second most abundant liquid on earth, and $100/bbl oil--or even $50/bbl oil--is a farce. The equilibrium price is regularly manipulated by the futures market traders, and exacerbated by political hacks who refuse to allow new refineries to be built or wells to be drilled. The oil is there, but an artificial scarcity is created by not extracting it.
skh.pcola
For some comparisons, can you find a future's chart from one year ago? How about 3 years?
It would be interesting to see how this segment of the economy was performing compared to the expected future values...
Here is one chart from 2005 predicting oil prices for 2007 in the high fifties.
Factoring in speculation and the fall of the dollar gets you into the range of the above referenced chart.
Goldman (Sachs)sees oil price 'super spike' to $105 a barrel is an interesting article from March 2005 regarding oil spikes over the following few years.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
$60 Oil?
Get ready, it's coming soon. Read about it here at Forbes.
Your words, less than a week before this post. Forgive me if I'm dubious.
Check this one for Crude Oil Forecasts:
http://crudeoiltrading.blogspot.com
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