Saturday, December 16, 2006

Top Ten Economic Predictions for 2007

Just released from Global Insight:

1. SLUGGISH GROWTH FOR THE U.S. (2.2%).
2. OTHER REGIONS (like Europe) WILL ALSO SLOW A LITTLE.
3. ONCE AGAIN, CHINA AND INDIA WILL BE STAR PERFORMERS.
4. OIL PRICES SHOULD REMAIN HIGH - $60-65 per barrel.
5. CORE INFLATION WILL EASE to 2% core inflation by late 2007.
6. THE FED WILL CUT RATES (to 4.5%) AS OTHER CENTRAL BANKS TIGHTEN.
7. HOUSING WILL KEEP DAMPENING U.S. GROWTH, AND COULD BECOME
A THREAT ELSEWHERE.
8. CURRENT-ACCOUNT IMBALANCES WILL EASE A LITTLE.
9. DOWNWARD PRESSURE ON THE DOLLAR WON'T EASE - $1.40/euro.
10. NO RECESSION IN 2007 UNLESS MUCH HIGHER OIL PRICES, INFLATION, AND INTEREST RATES.

See Global Insight's Top Ten Predictions for 2006 from one year ago
here, and see how accurate they were.

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