Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Trulia's Asking Home Price Index Increased by 2.3% in August, the Biggest Increase Since the Recession

From Trulia’s press release today
Trulia today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor, the earliest leading indicator available of trends in home prices. Based on the for-sale homes listed on Trulia, this monitor takes into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through August 31, 2012. (Note: The Price Monitor leads the commonly watched sales price indexes by several months, see details here.) 

Asking prices on for-sale homes–which lead sales prices by approximately two or more months – increased 2.3% in August year over year (YoY) and rose in 68 of the 100 largest metros. Excluding foreclosures, prices rose 3.8% YoY. These are the largest YoY gains since the recession. Meanwhile, asking prices rose nationally 1.8% quarter over quarter, seasonally adjusted. Month-over-month asking prices rose by 0.8%, the seventh consecutive month of increases (see chart above). 

Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist commented, “Asking prices rose 2.3% year over year in August, hitting two housing recovery milestones. First, asking prices rose faster than at any time since the recession. Second, asking prices excluding foreclosures are now rising faster than wages, putting an end to many years of affordability gains. In addition, price gains are catching up with slowing rent increases, which will tip some renters in favor of staying put in their rentals rather than buying a home." 

MP: More evidence today from Trulia of rising home prices and a housing recovery. And because the Trulia Price Monitor is a leading indicator of future home sales prices, we can expect the price gains and housing recovery to continue into the fall season. 

HT: Morganovich


At 9/05/2012 1:47 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

of interest, the increase in rental prices cooled off a bit as well.

Nationally, rents rose 4.7 percent Y-o-Y in August, compared to 5.8 percent Y-o-Y in May – making it the slowest rise since March. At the regional level, rents jumped more than 10 percent Y-o-Y in Houston and Seattle, but slowed in Denver, San Francisco, Miami, Oakland and Boston.

4.7% is still quite a high increase in rents, but down from over 6% is a meaningful decline.

i wonder to what extent the big jumps in rent are driving more folks to buy. 6% jumps in rent can change the rent/buy decision pretty dramatically especially is mortgage rates have fallen so much.

At 9/05/2012 1:53 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Just an anecdotal observation on rents, but I am renegotiating my lease with my landlord. I was able to get quite a little deal for myself, as the complex has had trouble holding on to renters (it's a nice building in a nice part of town, so no neighborhood issues there).

Now, don't take one apartment building in one complex in one city in New Hampshire as evidence to a higher trend, but thought I'd just share the story.

At 9/05/2012 2:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Housing is sure picking up around me. If anyone is bored and wants to kill 42 minutes, watch this video I made recently of some of the new housing developments popping up around me:
--- Snohomish County Homes Under Construction 2012 ---

At 9/05/2012 3:22 PM, Blogger Moe said...

Unknown: In my neighborhood, that would be one short video unfortunately. Of course my neighborhood is much less desirable. Cornfields or mountains?

At 9/06/2012 6:40 AM, Blogger knifecatcher said...

bank’s residential loan delinquency rates are more than five times historic norms, the share of distressed sales is also five times historic norms. That sounds like a recipe for a housing market bottom, right?

While Goldman expects the percentage of distressed sales to slowly tend toward this average, they understand this could take many years:

In our view, returning to a more normal proportion of distressed sales will take several years, given the large number of borrowers with negative equity, the large current delinquency and foreclosure inventory, and the long current foreclosure timelines.

At 9/06/2012 6:47 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

bank’s residential loan delinquency rates are more than five times historic norms, the share of distressed sales is also five times historic norms. That sounds like a recipe for a housing market bottom, right?

When the liquidation takes place there will be a bottom. The problem is that the Fed, Congress, and Treasury are getting in the way.


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