Saturday, April 21, 2012

U-Haul Rates Confirm The Great California Exodus

U-Haul rates for one-way 26 foot truck rentals in May:

From Sacramento to Houston: $2,370
From Houston to Sacramento: $1,007

From San Francisco to San Antonio: $2,214
From San Antonio to San Francisco:  $1,069

Dynamically-determined U-Haul rates reflect the differences in relative demand for one-way truck rentals between any two U.S. cities.  The 2:1 California-Texas price ratios above suggest that demand for trucks leaving California is roughly double the demand for trucks coming into the Golden State.  In other words U-Haul's one-way truck rental rates provide empirical evidence of "The Great California Exodus" discussed in yesterday's WSJ interview with demographer Joel Kotkin.  Here's an excerpt:

"The Golden State's fastest-growing entity is government and its biggest product is red tape. The first thing that comes to many American minds when you mention California isn't Hollywood or tanned girls on a beach, but Greece. Many progressives in California take that as a compliment since Greeks are ostensibly happier. But as Joel Kotkin, one of the nation's premier demographers notes, Californians are increasingly pursuing happiness elsewhere.

Nearly four million more people have left the Golden State in the last two decades than have come from other states. This is a sharp reversal from the 1980s, when 100,000 more Americans were settling in California each year than were leaving. According to Mr. Kotkin, most of those leaving are between the ages of 5 and 14 or 34 to 45. In other words, young families.

Part of California's dysfunction, he says, stems from state and local government restrictions on development. These policies have artificially limited housing supply and put a premium on real estate in coastal regions.

"Basically, if you don't own a piece of Facebook or Google and you haven't robbed a bank and don't have rich parents, then your chances of being able to buy a house or raise a family in the Bay Area or in most of coastal California is pretty weak," says Mr. Kotkin.

While many middle-class families have moved inland, those regions don't have the same allure or amenities as the coast. People might as well move to Nevada or Texas, where housing and everything else is cheaper and there's no income tax."


At 4/21/2012 10:47 AM, Blogger Hell_Is_Like_Newark said...

Unfortunately, the Californian refugees bring their politics with them. In the end, they end up voting for the same policies that turned CA in a tax and regulation hell-hole.

Lefties are sort of like locusts in a way...

At 4/21/2012 10:52 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Yes. And the socialist joker is trying to do the same to the entire US. Thanks a lot, liberals.

At 4/21/2012 11:59 AM, Blogger jcarroll1948 said...

I certainly agree with the 2 comments that precede mine. But, the statement that I find most appalling is "about 40% of Californians don't pay any income tax and a quarter are on Medicaid." Also, the author fails to mention the number of illegals.

At 4/21/2012 4:53 PM, Blogger Ed R said...

"Nearly four million more people have left the Golden State in the last two decades than have come from other states."

A rather selective and subjective interpretation of some numbers. During the period discussed in the article California's population continued to grow at a slightly higher rate than the rest of the USA. Or maybe the newcomers were not real "Americans".

At 4/21/2012 5:01 PM, Blogger Ed R said...

And BTW; Calif's median household income is still about 20% above the rest of the USA (per the US Census Bureau).

So where would Dr. Perry prefer to live: California or North Dakota??

At 4/21/2012 7:36 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

marmico: Those stats are 2 years old. The prices are new and Dr. Perry makes a valid extrapolation w.r.t demand for U-Hauls in both states to both states. Are there missing variables? Sure! He did not write an academic paper, just a blog!

At 4/21/2012 7:37 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

You are right about the growth rates, probably. But you have to thank private free market silicon valley for that. The growth was despite the government. Just imagine how much wealthier california would have been with a government like that of TX?

At 4/21/2012 11:18 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Marmico: I hate all commies/pinkos/greenies/statists/progressives.

At 4/22/2012 12:47 AM, Blogger Sailor36 said...

I live in the Pacific Northwest, where much of the more intrusive brand of land use planning is driven by immigrants from California. I can confirm that, having screwed things up in California, many of those people are attempting to accomplish the same feat in their new homes.

The exodus might be good for Texas, but it's not good everywhere these people move.

At 4/22/2012 12:51 PM, Blogger james said...

All of this spells trouble for the Californian people. This means less tax revenue. But not less government. As the economic pie shinks the demands on government do not.

At 4/22/2012 9:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

All things being equal, California is a nicer place to live than SD. If only the crushing taxes, astonishingly insane regulations, and may-issue CCW system could be done away in California would things be equal.


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