Friday, March 30, 2012

Restaurant Index Expands in Feb. for 4th Month

"Bolstered by positive same-store sales and traffic results and an optimistic outlook among restaurant operators, the National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) remained above 100 for the fourth consecutive month in February. The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.9 in February, up 0.6 percent from January’s level of 101.3 (see chart). In addition, the RPI stood solidly above the 100 threshold in February, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

The Expectations Index, which measures operators’ six month outlook for four industry indicators (same-store sales, employees, capital expenditures and business conditions), stood at 102.0 in February – essentially unchanged from January (see chart above). February marked the sixth consecutive month that the Expectations Index stood above 100, which represents an optimistic outlook among restaurant operators for business conditions in the months ahead."

Update: Sales for "Food Services and Drinking Places" were up by 8.2% in February from a year earlier, following a 9.3% increase in January.  Sales at "Full Service Restaurants" were up by 11% in January. The restaurant industry has made a full recovery from the recession and is now operating back at pre-recession levels. 


At 3/30/2012 10:45 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

i'm a little puzzled by this.

same store sales were up 1.4% yoy for feb.

that's a nominal figure and well below the "food away from home" component of cpi which was up 3.1% yoy in feb.

doesn't that imply a significant real decline in sales?

At 3/30/2012 10:52 AM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

It might, but retail sales of eating establishments as measured by the Census (and adjusted for deflation by me) totaled a record $500.8 billion over the past 12 months.

At 3/30/2012 12:01 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

whatt data series are you using?

the census food away from home includes all manner of things, including school lunches etc.

adjusted for deflation? i presume that is a typo?

At 3/30/2012 12:31 PM, Blogger Jon Murphy said...

Yes, sorry, it should read adjusted for inflation. Sorry about that.

I am using the Food & Drink Establishments data series. According to NACIS: "Industries in the Food Services and Drinking Places subsector prepare meals, snacks, and beverages to customer order for immediate on-premises and off-premises consumption. The industry groups are full-service restaurants; limited-service eating places; special food services, such as food service contractors, caterers, and mobile food services; and drinking places."

At 3/30/2012 1:50 PM, Blogger morganovich said...

and what was that series for feb vs a year ago?

i cannot seem to find a readily available dataset.

(also note this was a leap year, so we need to adjust the numbers a little)

At 3/31/2012 8:57 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Feb. sales were up by 8.2% and January sales were up by 9.3%, vs. a year earlier.


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