Thursday, February 10, 2011

UCLA Commerce Index Increases for 14th Month

"The Ceridian-UCLA Pulse of Commerce Index (PCI), issued yesterday by the UCLA Anderson School of Management and Ceridian Corporation fell 0.3% on a seasonally and monthly workday adjusted basis in January, giving up some of December’s exceptional 1.8% sequential gain. Because of the very strong December showing, the three-month annualized moving average is up 5.1% and gaining strength (see chart above). This follows a string of weak or negative readings experienced in the second half of last year, further supporting our view that there is no evidence for a “double dip” in 2011. Importantly, however, we are not yet seeing signs of the growth required to drive meaningful employment gains.

The PCI grew 3.4% on a year-over-year basis in January. This marked the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the index. Growth of 3.4% is respectable, but not exceptional – particularly when compared to the gains recorded in April through July of 2010. However, like last month, the year-over-year growth is encouraging because January of last year was strong, and the index was able to grow over that strong comparison."


At 2/11/2011 9:54 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Wonderful. Two and a half years after the recession began we are still looking at an index that is 4% lower than it was in 2006. Get the party hats out before the stimulus and QE2 effects decline.

At 2/11/2011 9:56 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Meanwhile, we see some very dark clouds on the horizon.

At 2/11/2011 11:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does a 0.3 percent decline for January represent an increase for a 14th straight month?

At 2/11/2011 11:08 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

See bold text in post: This marked the 14th consecutive month of year-over-year growth in the index.


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