Tuesday, December 14, 2010

Retail Sales Boost GDP Forecasts: 4.3% in QIV?

From today's WSJ: "Many economists are responding to today’s merry news on consumer spending by increasing their overall economic growth forecasts.

Morgan Stanley increased its forecast for fourth quarter growth to 4.3% from 4.2%.

J.P. Morgan, Credit Suisse, Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays Capital each boosted their fourth-quarter projections a full percentage point on the retail data.

Some economists are even more optimistic. John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros of RDQ Economics project fourth-quarter GDP will expand nearly 4%."

“The consumer appears to be alive and well and willing to open their pocketbooks wider,” they said.

Michael Feroli of J.P. Morgan Chase is encouraged that gains can continue into next year. “We think the strength in the consumer can be sustained: last week we revised up first half 2011 consumption growth on the expectation that the tax compromise goes through, boosting disposable incomes and spending. In part because of this, we look for first half GDP growth that is as good or better than the fourth quarter outcome,” he said. J.P. Morgan expects fourth-quarter growth to come in at 3.5%.


At 12/14/2010 9:39 PM, Blogger Eric H said...

So, should I "buy the dip" at Best Buy?

At 12/16/2010 9:45 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

Great. Ignore the doctored CPI numbers, the massive problems in the municipal bond markets, the huge debt loads, reckless spending by people who are already broke, and federal deficits that are rising close to the 30% of GDP point of no return. Most of us live in the real world, and can't afford to concentrate on the noise when the signal is as clear as it is. Buy any dips in the precious metals, buy petroleum, buy agricultural commodities and sell the overhyped S&P 500 stocks.


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