West Coast Shipping Boom in July
Following recent posts on shipping booms in July at the Port of Los Angeles and Port of Seattle, here are two more:
1. Port of Long Beach. July shipping increased 35.8% compared to last year, and YTD shipping is 22.3% ahead of last year.
2. Port of Oakland. July shipping increased 16.3% compared to last year, and YTD activity is 16.3% ahead of last year.
2 Comments:
While the Asian economy is booming, the European & U.S. have been suffering. This week's first time unemployment claims bear this out. Also, the turn up in 1st time claims was right on schedule per the post I had on 5/27/10 (Claims turned up in late July as predicted):
"I think the real debate on this board is whether this recession represents a "V" or a "W". I think we have only seen one "W" since the great depression and it was the 1980-82 double recession. Since Mark chose the topic of discussion as 4 week average jobless claims (he can do that since this is his board), I went back to compare the 1980-82 period to today. The current data on 4 week jobless claims is tracking VERY close to the the "W".
4 week jobless claims reached a botton during the week of 11/11/78 at 319K. It rose to 629K by 6/7/80 (+97% in 20 mo). It then fell to 410K by 12/13/80 (-35% in 6 mo). It basically held this level for the next 6 months, then started rising again and peaking at 674K by 10/9/82. It then fell back to normal at 339K by 2/25/84.
In our current time period, our jobless claims were at a low of 314K on 10/6/07 and rose to 643K by 4/4/09 (+105% in 18 mo). It fell to 462K by 1/9/10 (-38% in 9 mo). It has been essentially flat for the past 4-1/2 months. If it follows the 1980-82 pattern, first time unemployment claims will start to rise again around July.
Will this happen? A government debt crisis (European, state, municipal) could certainly be a trigger for a second wave."
Source: Comment #14:
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=28997633&postID=7819046683236355698
prosperity seems to be missing the east coast:
philly fed goes negative.
The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased from a reading of 5.1 in July to ‐7.7 in August. The index turned negative, marking a period of declining monthly activity for the first time since July 2009 (see Chart). Indexes for new orders and
shipments also suggest a slowing this month; the new orders index fell slightly, to ‐7.1, while the shipments index turned negative, declining to ‐4.5. Indicating weakness, indexes for both delivery times and unfilled orders remained negative this month.
The percentage of firms reporting a decline in employment (23 percent) was higher than the percentage (20 percent) reporting an increase. More concerning was the significant drop in the average employee workweek index from 1.7 in July to ‐17.1 in August.
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