Tuesday, June 15, 2010

Empire State Index Pos. for 11th Month

From the NY FED's Empire State Manufacturing Survey:

"The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved in June.  The general business conditions index inched up to 19.6, slightly above its May reading of 19.1. The index has now been above zero for eleven consecutive months, indicating an ongoing expansion in business activity. The new orders index rose modestly, to 17.5, and the shipments index climbed to 19.7. The unfilled orders index was negative for a third consecutive month, at -1.2. The delivery time index rose more than 16 points to 9.9, suggesting that delivery times lengthened in June. The inventories index remained near zero after posting positive readings in March and April, indicating that inventory levels have stabilized.

Future indexes remained firmly in positive territory, although the readings, like last month's, suggest that respondents' optimism had fallen slightly from the relatively high levels reached in prior months. The future general business conditions index declined for a second consecutive month, edging down a little more than a point to 40.7."


At 6/15/2010 9:29 AM, Anonymous morganovich said...

this looks a little less rosy:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sentiment among U.S. home builders retreated in June after a tax break for home buyers expired, according to a monthly survey released Tuesday by the National Association of Home Builders.

The housing market index dived to 17 in June from 22 in May, the NAHB reported.

All three components of the index fell in June, and home builders were more discouraged in all four regions of the country.

The index was lower than the 21 that was expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch, and was the lowest since it hit 15 in March. The five-point drop was the most since November 2008.

At 17, the index shows that roughly one-in-six builders think the housing market is good. Read the full release on the NAHB website.

At the peak in June 2005, the index reached 72; at the nadir in January 2009, it sank to 8. It's been below 50 for 50 consecutive months.

At 6/15/2010 9:36 AM, Anonymous morganovich said...

dr perry-

do you have any data on the actual predictive value of this series? how does it do forecasting GDP or employment or some other meaningful metric?

i have some real suspicions about the utility of these surveys as predictive tools, but have never done a rigorous analysis.

At 6/15/2010 9:46 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Tech spending is also up, like pickup truck sales. However, is it really a boom?:

Tech Spending Set to Rebound in 2010

The tech recovery will be much stronger than the overall economic recovery...U.S. IT spending will grow 6.6% in 2010 to $568 billion, after declining by 8.2% in 2009.

At 6/15/2010 9:50 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Pickup truck sales:

Pickup sales shifting into a higher gear, signaling confidence in an economic recovery
June 14, 2010

Pickup sales peaked at 2.5 million in 2004, when the housing boom was in full swing and homebuilders couldn't get enough of them.

In 2009, automakers sold 1.1 million trucks, the lowest level in 18 years.

This year, pickup sales have been gaining momemtum. Through May, Americans bought 11 percent more than they did in the first five months of last year.

The outlook for the housing industry is far from clear, which means the future for pickup truck sales — not to mention the economic recovery — is far from certain.

At 6/15/2010 11:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You would think that the futures index would lead the current index. It doesn't. It looks coincident to me.

morganovich, you bad. Your post should be deleted. The chart ain't v-shaped.

At 6/15/2010 11:26 AM, Anonymous gettingrational said...

morganovich asks the predictive value of regional Fed indexes but maybe they usually predict lower. Scott Grannis of Califia Beach Pundit blog states that 3.1% is the long term U.S. GSP growth. Mr. Grannis notes that Milton Friedman had a theory that the U.S. economy has an uncanny ability to snap out of recessions to average 3.1% growth. At this link Grannis cites an Atlanta Fed article that shows a wide gap times for Fed predictions and actual growth.

BTW, Mr. Grannis and Prof. Perry have a good natured debate over inflation and deflation. According to a recent Califia Beach post they are both right! Services are inflating (Grannis) and Goods are deflating (Perry).

-Also Califia Beach Pundit had a June 11, 2010 post enttitled "Government jobs are by the best paying". Mr. Grannis acknowledges Prof. Perry's stellar work in bringing this to national prominance.

At 6/15/2010 11:57 AM, Anonymous gettingrational said...

Correction: Calafia Beach Pundit

At 6/15/2010 12:51 PM, Blogger Ron H. said...

gettingrational, your link isn't.

At 6/15/2010 1:07 PM, Anonymous gettingrational said...

Ron H, June 10th post entitled the 10% GDP output gap at Calafia Beach Pundit. (don't know why it didn't link)

At 6/15/2010 1:19 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

excellent link on the differential between goods and services inflation:


the point about inflation being much higher for the consumption basket of those with higher incomes is an interesting one, particularly as it tends to be the lower income voters that oppose free trade.


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