Friday, June 11, 2010

Consumer Confidence Highest Since Jan. 2008

The University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a 29-month high in June of 75.5, an increase of almost two full points from 73.6 in May, and the highest reading since January 2008 of 78.4 in the second month of the recession.  The recovery in consumer confidence through June is consistent with the pattern of consumer confidence levels following the recessions of 1980, 1981-1982, and 1990-1991.  See Bloomberg report here.


At 6/11/2010 2:02 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

might another way to look at this data might be "consumer confidence still at levels below anything seen from 2000-the beginning of the last recession and still 7% below the nadir of the 2001 recession"

sure, it's much better than it was, but it's still quite weak.

At 6/11/2010 6:32 PM, Anonymous Titus Pullo said...

Wasn't the country already in a recession in January 2008 when consumer confidence was so high?

At 6/11/2010 6:51 PM, Anonymous Craig said...

Expressing confidence is easy -- when you don't have to, like, shell out any dough to back it up.

And, of course, the whole consumer confidence scam is based on the faulty premise that consumer spending drives the economy. If businesses don't spend first, consumers -- no matter how confident -- won't have jobs (i.e. they won't really be able to consume).

It's amazing to me that this index still gets so much press.

At 6/11/2010 7:26 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The last time we came "out of recession" at this low a level (1981) we "double-dipped." I think we might, again.

At 6/11/2010 7:45 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Craig, maybe you know if the chicken or the egg came first.

I think it doesn't matter much, except without one, you can't have the other.

United States Business Confidence

In the United States, business confidence declined to 59.70 in May of 2010 from 60.40 in April of 2010, according to the Institute of Supply Management (ISM). In the United States, the business confidence survey measures the level of optimism that people who run companies have about the performance of the economy and how they feel about their organizations’ prospects. Business confidence surveys can provide useful signs about the current condition of the economy, because companies often have information about consumer demand sooner than government statisticians do.

At 6/12/2010 2:58 PM, Anonymous morganovich said...

"The recovery in consumer confidence through June is consistent with the pattern of consumer confidence levels following the recessions of 1980, 1981-1982, and 1990-1991"

by what metric can you claim that?

1990 saw a spike to nearly 90 by the time the recession had ended.

in the 6 months after 82, you again saw a run above 90.

80 is a special case as volcker's massive interest rate spike short circuited the recovery causing the 82 recession.

so, here we are 9 months out of the 2008-9 recession without a spike to 90 or even a reading that would not pretty much be the low since clinton took office.

so, by what metric does this current performance look consistent with the others? this is the lowest number we have had 9 months out of a recession in 30 years.

it looks more like 80 (when we double dipped) than anything else.

how do you arrive at your conclusion?

At 6/13/2010 7:23 PM, Blogger bix1951 said...

what, really, is a recession?
why should we accept what the National Bureau of Economics Research tells us?
They make up the definition
They observe the world
they are experts
we all know experts are infallible!

Perhaps, "economic diagnoses are in the minds of observers and are not valid summaries of characteristics displayed by the observed."


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