Thursday, April 08, 2010

Top 10 Reasons the Economic Recovery is Real

Overwhelming evidence has been gathering recently that a widespread economic recovery is underway in both the U.S. and around the world. At the Enterprise Blog, I summarize the ten major economic factors that indicate that the U.S. economy has emerged from the Great Recession and entered a period of solid and sustained economic expansion.


At 4/08/2010 11:25 AM, Blogger Benjamin Cole said...

Good wrap-up.
Die recession, die, die, die.

In commercial real estate, the bottom has been signaled by vulture funds and others buying. For a while, there were no transactions. Now, there are. Hence, the bottom.

At 4/08/2010 11:48 AM, Anonymous morganovich said...

i think you are misinterpreting a number of these indicators.

low vix is not a sign of low risk. if anything, it's the opposite. vix is always low at market and economic cycle tops. spreads are not as meaningful if bond markets are being manipulated by central banks.

the temp employment numbers are just a response to structural changes in employment law. it's not a good thing when temp jobs are substituted for full time ones. also, the census is skewing these numbers. i presume you noticed the uptick in unemployment claims today?

real estate is going to face a nasty headwind. with the fed program to buy mortgages over, rates are headed up. that will put a lid on appreciation.

the millionaires issue is just a stock market one. such fluctuations have a low multiplier effect. further, they are one greek default away from starting to shrink.

stock rallies are nice, but are more a function of liquidity than economic hope, at least in the US and EU.

this is going to be a tepid, muddle through kind of recovery. there's nothing v shaped about it and the only reason we have even done so well thus far is massive government interventions and fiscal policy of unprecedented looseness with helicopter ben at the reins.

personal debt is still very high. credit is tight. federal fiscal policy is wildly out of hand presaging big deficits, heavy bond supply, and increased taxes.

this is not the formula for dramatic growth.

At 4/08/2010 4:10 PM, Anonymous gettingrational said...

The preponderance evidence seems to state the world economic recovery is real. Within those statistics cited the U.S. is included to varying degrees.

The New Normal for U.S. statistics need trade deficits trending lower or even surpluses. The U.S. Needs to Export or Die.

At 4/08/2010 5:24 PM, Anonymous Fabulous said...

US government employment is very healthy. If you are a member of a public sector union, job prospects are relatively good.

Otherwise, not so good.

A bubble recovery can appear superficially very much like the genuine article.

At 4/08/2010 6:03 PM, Anonymous Pingry said...

Well the last two recessions had a "real" recovery and yet they were also characterized as "jobless."

Talk about recovery is nice but let's not trick ourselves into thing that there will be a robust increase in employment, to say nothing of the lives ruined from this recession.


At 4/08/2010 6:05 PM, Anonymous Pingry said...


At 4/08/2010 7:05 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

At John Wilsons shadow stats the real .U.S.un-employment rate is quoted at over 20% so your article here is all very well but In what new industries would you suggest these people will find meaningful long term employment.

At 4/08/2010 8:23 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Re: Professor Perry's: '3. The millionaires are back'...

Hmmm, there are taxes in the wind to take care of that pesky little problem of successful people:

Forbes magazine: Will More States Target Rich? Obama tax proposals could make state tax hikes, such as those in Oregon, more painful
Ashlea Ebeling and Janet Novack, 02.01.10, 04:30 PM EST

From the WSJ: Another Obama Tax Hike
The Senate health-care bill would raise effective marginal tax rates on lower and middle-income singles and families up to 41%.

Re: '4. Jobs, jobs, and more jobs...

From USAToday, a spin job: Initial jobless claims increase, continuing claims fall

At 4/08/2010 10:05 PM, Anonymous Titus Pullo said...

Recovery is when Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi lose their jobs.

At 4/09/2010 3:39 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

U.S. auto sales:

2006 16.6 million
2007 16.2 million
2008 13.2 million
2009 10.4 million

2010 The seasonally adjusted annual rate for March 2010 was 11.7 million.

2009 totals were the worst in 27 years and that does not even factor in population growth.

At 4/09/2010 2:45 PM, Blogger Bob Potter said...

This recovery is the miniscule eye of a level 5 economic hurricane.

The storm wall of unsustainable government entitlements is about to engulf us all.

Enjoy the "sunny skies" before the malestrom liberal fools.


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