Saturday, April 24, 2010

"Great Housing Market Bust is Over"

New home sales increased in March by 23.8% compared to the same month last year, the largest annual increase in new home sales since the month of July 2005, according to data released yesterday by the Census Bureau (see chart above).

As a result of the increased sales activity for new homes at the same time that the supply is at a 39-year low, the inventory measure "months supply of new homes at the current sales rate" fell to the lowest level since December 2006, signalling that the balance between supply and demand of new homes is back to a more normal, pre-crisis level (see graph below).

MP: Friday's new data on new home sales through March point to a housing market that is past the bottom and in a new period of recovery. See Scott Grannis' recent post on existing home sales, where Scott concludes that "The resulting picture becomes quite clear: the great housing market bust is over, and a new growth cycle is underway."


At 4/24/2010 11:37 AM, Anonymous Svend said...

The stimulus will end MP. Then what.

Unemployment high, wages down but home prices up. Ok. We're in a bat shit crazy country.

At 4/24/2010 1:28 PM, Blogger Benjamin Cole said...

Die recession, die, die die.

As Bush jr. recedes into the past, so will the long national nightmare of financial system collapse and deep recession, Bush jr. left behind also not one but two open-ended wars to conclude, but I think Obama will bail out soon.

Prosperity here we come.

At 4/24/2010 3:49 PM, Blogger juandos said...

The ever delusional pseudo Benny yammers on: "but I think Obama will bail out soon"...

Good one troll!

Your tree is waiting for you...

At 4/24/2010 4:32 PM, Blogger Bruce Hall said...

Presently we're selling our house and it looks as if it will go quickly. How? Easy.

1. reduce your price by 33%
2. get a buyer without a current home who qualifies for the tax credit that ends in April
3. don't look back because the market will tank in May

At 4/24/2010 5:58 PM, Blogger Paul said...

You gotta love Benji's disconnect from reality. His socialist boyfriend president continues to suck the private sector's wealth and industry away, he's poised to become Lord and Master of The Banks like he now is over our health care, but Benji's still blaming Bush, Palin, and the Tea Party.

At 4/24/2010 7:56 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You would think Dr. Perry or his censor would be a little less touchy about Con being in Economist.

How can a newspaper have side by side articles where one economist is calling for tax cuts and reduced government spending while the next economist is calling for tax increases and trillions in deficit spending to revive the economy.

Someone is pulling the wool over our eyes.

Mark may like to celebrate the housing numbers, but ignores how they got there. It's as if the last housing bubble never happened or economists never learned anything.

At 4/25/2010 8:38 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hmm. Still having problems with statistics, eh. Percentage increases over a low base made to look good. Not absolute numbers.

At 4/25/2010 10:42 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Following up on anon's statistics comment, it appears that Jan 07 was down 20% from Jan 06, Jan 08 was down 30% from Jan 07, Jan 09 was down about 45% from Jan 08. So if you call Jan 06 as 100, than 07 was 80, 08 was 64, 09 was 35.2. If we say 2010 is up 20 (although Jan 2010 it was not), then we're at 42 plus or minus. Is my math right?

At 4/26/2010 9:47 AM, Anonymous DrTorch said...

All of these data don't make sense combined.


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