Thursday, April 15, 2010

April Empire State Index Close to 4-Year High

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York State manufacturers improved at a rapid pace in April. The general business conditions index rose 9 points, to 31.9 (see chart above). The new orders and shipments indexes advanced as well, and the inventories index climbed to a record high. The prices paid index moved up 12 points to 41.8, its highest level in considerably more than a year, while the prices received index held fairly steady at a level just above zero. Employment indexes rose to high levels, suggesting that employment levels are continuing to improve. Future indexes conveyed an ongoing sense of optimism about the six-month outlook.

Future indexes again conveyed a high level of optimism about the next six months. The future general business conditions index rose slightly, to 55.7, adhering to its relatively high levels of the past several months (see chart).

MP: The readings of 31.9 in April and 33.4 last October are the first times the Empire Index has been above 33.0 since March 2006. The index has now been positive for the last nine months, following 15 straight months of negative readings.


At 4/15/2010 3:01 PM, Blogger bobble said...

the philly fed has an index that is designed to be more real-time sensitive. it's currently started to trend down

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

At 4/15/2010 5:09 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Bernanke Text: 'Moderate' Recovery Seen in Coming Quarters
April 14, 2010

The Economic Outlook

With inventories now much better aligned with final sales...and with the support from fiscal policy set to diminish in the coming year, further economic expansion will depend on continued growth in private final demand.

On the inflation front...For the three months ended in February, prices for personal consumption expenditures rose at an annual rate of 1-1/4 percent despite a further steep run-up in energy prices; core inflation, which excludes prices of food and energy, slowed to an annual rate of 1/2 percent."

At 4/15/2010 5:33 PM, Blogger Benjamin Cole said...

Die recession, die, die, die!

I think it's dead. Yes, bona-fide job-hunters have the right to feel bitter. It will take months to get a job, even now.

Still, the economy is growing. There is a secular bull market ahead.

At 4/15/2010 7:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is a secular bull market ahead.

The end of the world alarmists are going to hate that. Another apocolypse averted.

At 4/16/2010 2:42 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

White House Reports More Than 2.2 Mln. Jobs From Stimulus Funds

The White House is estimating that the $787 billion economic stimulus and recovery bill that was passed early last year is responsible for between 2.2 million and 2.8 million jobs in the first quarter of 2010.

Home-buyer income tax credit ends April 30
April 16, 2010

Nationally, through mid-February, nearly 1.8 million Americans had filed returns to collect $12.6 billion in tax credits for homes they purchased in 2008 and 2009.

Obama Signs $18 Billion Jobless Benefits Bill
despite deficit worries
April 16, 2010

The measure comes as welcome relief to hundreds of thousands of people who lost out on the additional weeks of compensation after exhausting their state-paid benefits. They now will be able to reapply for long-term unemployment benefits and receive those checks retroactively under the legislation.

At 4/16/2010 3:38 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 4/16/2010 3:40 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said... shows less than half of the $787 billion stimulus has been "paid out."

At 4/16/2010 8:26 AM, Anonymous morganovich said...

i'm never sure what to make of these regional surveys. there are legions of issues with such "self reporting" studies from respondent bias and failure to be honest all the way to selection bias around who gets the surveys.

has anyone ever actually tried to correlate these results with actual economic performance on a real time basis or tried to assess the predictive value of the future conditions index?

dr perry, this might be an interesting project for you.

these two indices look awfully tightly locked together to me for surveys that are supposed to be measuring different periods.

At 4/16/2010 11:14 AM, Blogger bobble said...

anon7:31:"There is a secular bull market ahead."

i agree that its a bull market.

however, rather than 'secular', i'd describe it as a liquidity driven asset bubble. as they say, don't fight the fed.


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