Saturday, October 10, 2009

V-Shaped Recovery: "Virtually Unstoppable"

Yahoo! Finance -- Good news for those worried about the economy: "We are in the early stages of the recovery and it looks to be a lot stronger" than the consensus for modest 2%-3% GDP growth, says Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Furthermore, the recovery will be "V-shaped" and is now "virtually unstoppable" - at least through the first half of 2010 -- Achuthan says, citing a "positive contagion" in the economy right now, based on leading economic indicators. Most notably, the ECRI's index of Weekly Economic Indicators just hit a new record high (see chart above).

NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - As the U.S. economy rebounds from a long-running recession, a weekly leading index of future growth released on Friday showed the annualized growth rate hitting a record high. The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 128.3 in the week to Oct. 2 from 127.1 the prior week. The index's yearly growth rate rose to new all-time high of 26.1 percent in the latest reading, from a revised 25.0 percent the prior week (see chart above).

"With WLI (Weekly Leading Index) growth rocketing to a new record high, the economic recovery will prove to be far more resilient in coming months than most believe possible," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI's managing director. "The risk of a double dip (recession) is very low," Achuthan added.


At 10/10/2009 1:01 PM, Anonymous Session said...

The Titanic was virtually unsinkable.

At 10/11/2009 12:38 AM, Anonymous PotatoChef said...

Is there a parallel economy? Because the economy I'm living in does not seem to be showing too many positive signs.

What is going to happen when the much talked about commercial real estate foreclosure tsunami hits? Or when the second wave of home foreclosures hit? Or when GM and Chrysler finally gasp their last breath of air because the feds can't subsidize their cars forever?

Is that when the "V-Shaped Recovery" will make itself known to the masses?

At 10/11/2009 2:45 AM, Blogger Unknown said...


Good source for more "shocking" (anecedotal) NEWS on the disconnect between the STOCK MARKET and the REAL ECONOMY:
1. Season tickets and personal use licenses "on sale" Yankees and Cowboys. Original prices reflected DOW at 25000.
2. DNR (Department of Natural Resources) offering $15K to remove boats from waterways. The original owners were "slightly" upside down plus those $300+ / month slip fees are a nuisance. Gas: forgetaboutit, they stayed "tied up" at the dock. Owners relax with one case of beer, some ice in a cooler and a glazed look in their eyes. Can't afford bait to fish. Great deals on boats for cash buyers. Can't "walk away" from these big boats but if you have a "little dingy" you can make it work. Good boat names on abandoned "yachts" SIZE MATTERS, IT'S ONLY MONEY, MEMORIES.

One more thing: "BREAKING NEWS"
CONGRESS to solve illegal alien problem by buying all RV's , Travel Trailers supplemented by a "travel voucher" to anywhere SOUTH OF THE BORDER. FOX News poll shows 90% constituent approval. CBO is working over weekend to determine the size of this new stimulus feature to appear in STIMULUS 3 or 4, maybe 5. This message approved by the RV Association and John Cornyn. I think he resides in Texas sometimes.

At 10/11/2009 9:24 AM, Anonymous Screw said...

The chances of a double-dip are zero.

You have to have a bottom, first, before you can dip second time.

At 10/12/2009 8:54 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

I'm afraid too much of the leading indicators are simply a function of the heavy-handed maneuvers of the Fed and the US government to keep the economy on life support. Looks to me like we're repeating the mistakes of Japan in the 90's (which continue through this day).

Where's the money for all this "v-shaped" recovery to come from? The government's balance sheet is a mess, 1/3 of homeowners are underwater on their mortgages, Boomers has lost much of their retirement savings just prior to needing it, banks still have tons of bad loans on the balance sheets, and CRE is the other shoe about to drop.

Who's going to be funding this supposed rebound?


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