Thursday, October 15, 2009

Empire Indexes (General, Future) Reach 5-Yr. Highs

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey indicates that conditions for New York manufacturers improved significantly in October. The general business conditions index climbed 16 points to 34.6, its highest level in more than five years (since May 2004, see chart above).

The new orders index rose 11 points, and the shipments index shot up 30 points, to 35.1. Both employment indexes were positive for the first time in more than a year. Price indexes were little changed, with the prices paid index remaining positive while the prices received index hovered just below zero. Future indexes advanced to relatively high levels, indicating that respondents expect conditions to improve further in the months ahead (see chart above, highest level since October 2004).

MP: What more can I add? Five-year highs for both Empire indexes, both for general business (current) conditions and future business conditions. Full recovery underway and the future looks even better. Chance of a double-dip? Close to zero.


At 10/15/2009 12:16 PM, Anonymous Admiral said...

I'm just curious -- but reading this chart -- does it imply that futures just instantaneously reflect current information with very little predictive ability? If not, why?


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