Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Richmond Fed Index: It's Over

Manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region expanded for the fifth straight month in September, according to the Richmond Fed’s latest survey. All broad indicators—shipments, new orders and employment—landed in positive territory, with manufacturers noting their first increase in worker numbers since December 2007. Other indicators were mixed, however. Capacity utilization grew more slowly, while backlogs and vendor delivery times shrank. In addition, manufacturers reported slower growth in inventories.

Looking ahead, assessments for business prospects for the next six months were also generally more positive. Contacts at more firms anticipated that their new orders, backlogs, capacity utilization and capital expenditures would grow more quickly in the months ahead than they expected in August.

MP: The Richmond Fed Index been in positive territory for five consecutive months for the first time in three years (since April to September 2006).


At 9/22/2009 10:51 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Philly Fed: "Not Yet"

"Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Forty states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 6 states, and was unchanged in 4."
"the number of states with one month increasing activity. Most of the U.S. was has been in recession since December 2007 based on this indicator...A large percentage of states still showed declining activity in August."

Calculated Risk: Philly Fed State Coincident Indicators

At 9/22/2009 12:23 PM, Blogger Jack Miller said...

Professor, what would you put the odds of a double dip? The almost double dip in 2002 was the result of 911 and the double dip in 81-82 was the result of only a minor cleaning out of excess in 1980. I see signs of a major capital spending boom in relation to mobile communications. It's strength should be equal and opposite to the lower spending for energy. What do you think?

At 9/22/2009 12:28 PM, Anonymous GregL said...

Manufacturing has shrunken greatly in the last 3 decades and can no longer be consitered as a proxy for the entire economy.

You need a better gage.

At 9/22/2009 1:45 PM, Anonymous richard said...


Here's a video for you


You remember you used to compare the sears catalog with today's prices? This is about the same, but then as a video.

At 9/22/2009 3:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Note that one has to define what one means by manufacturing. The share of GDP generated by manufacturing as a share of world manufacturing has been stable over 30 years. If you mean employment then yes it has been shrinking, because IT has replaced people which in one sense proves Ned Ludd(Luddite) right. What has happened in the US that low skilled MFG has been automated or offshored, leaving high skilled MFG.
This is actually a trend that occured in Ag in the early part of the 20th century, so it is a repeat of a trend.

At 9/23/2009 8:04 PM, Anonymous Clab J said...

You must have missed the BLS report on mass layoff events increasing and expected to increase through the end of the year.


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