Monday, August 17, 2009

Empire State Survey Suggests Recession is Over

NEW YORK FED - In August, after more than a year of negative readings, the Empire State general business conditions index rose into positive territory and reached its highest level since November 2007 - a clear indication that, on balance, business conditions had improved for New York State manufacturers. The Empire State general business conditions index increased 13 points, to 12.1, its highest level since November of 2007 (see chart above). Future indexes generally rose from last month and conveyed optimism about the six-month outlook; the capital expenditures index rose to its highest level in over a year.

Future indexes rose significantly in August, conveying an expectation that conditions would continue to improve in the months ahead. The Empire State future general business conditions index advanced 14 points to 48.2 (see chart above), with 62% of respondents expecting conditions to be better in six months.

MP: Comparing the Empire State indexes in the graph above for future and current conditions over the last several months to the levels of those two indexes at the end of the 2001 recession, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey suggests that the recession probably ended in either June or July of this year.

Originally posted at Carpe Diem.


At 8/17/2009 9:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As I speak, the dead cat is falling down again. World markets plunged overnight and the Dow is down 175 in the first hour of trading. But who couldn't see this coming with financial stocks artificially buoyed by government funds and pumped up profits from one-off sales.

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey has been down for two months straight and has reached the level back in April. With over 21% of household net worth destroyed since the middle of 2007, people just aren't into buying anything right now.

Bankruptcies, unemployment, and foreclosures are climbing, house prices will fall for the rest of the year. High priced homes still cannot sell. Commercial real estate is on the verge of collapse. Structured finance has disappeared.

Your green shoots and flowers of the day have wilted. The W is here! In a few months, you will be ashamed you ever predicted an early recovery. All the suckers who bought your baseless optimism will be choking on those green shoots of poison ivy.

For shame!


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