Thursday, June 18, 2009

Jobless Claims Fall to Lowest Level in Four Months

The Department of Labor just released its Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, reporting that the four-week moving average (which smoothes out the volatility) of initial unemployment claims fell this week to 615,750, the lowest level since February 7, more than four months ago (see chart above). From the April 4 peak of 658,750 claims, the four-week moving average has declined in 8 out of the last 10 weeks, and is now 43,000 claims below the peak. With every week of new data, it's looking more and more certain that April 4 was the peak for jobless claims, and the labor market will continue to gradually improve as move forward.


At 6/18/2009 9:24 AM, Blogger Steponic's Economics said...

Where did you find that graph? I'd like to follow it with my students over time.

At 6/18/2009 9:39 AM, Blogger Hot Sam said...

This is great news! If this rate of falling jobless claims continues, we'll be back at the bottom of this chart in only 17.5 months.

Thank God the 2010 Census is coming to speed that up next summer.

At 6/18/2009 9:43 AM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

Steponic's Economics: I created the graph myself, and usually update it weekly every Thursday.

At 6/18/2009 11:08 AM, Blogger Moses Kim said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

At 6/18/2009 11:11 AM, Blogger Moses Kim said...

Unemployment does seem to be moderating somewhat, but there are just too many headwinds facing our economy, including massive option ARM resets, to think that this thing has bottomed.

I just wrote an article about the massaged unemployment numbers if anyone's interested:


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