Monday, September 08, 2008

Based On Hours Worked: NO Recession

Investor's Business Daily editorial today:

As Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust, points out, aggregate hours worked — a key growth indicator — are off just 0.6% from a year ago. Every recession since World War II has experienced a decline in this number of at least 3%, year over year. We're not even close.

See chart above, data here.


At 9/08/2008 9:09 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Maybe not yet, but the trend sure isn't pretty.

At 9/08/2008 9:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Looks like a lagging indicator. Every time it got under 0 for some time there was a recession coming.

If things have to get worse for the US economy to get in a recession imagine how bad it'll be!

At 9/08/2008 12:08 PM, Blogger Kevin said...

In every recession on the graph, the recession officially started about the time that the numbers dropped below zero. In fact, only twice on the graph did the numbers go negative without being in the start of a recession. The other six time it WAS a recession.

If this graph was the only data we had to go on, the probability that we have entered recession is now 75% (6 out of 8 events where we cross the zero line with a negative slope).

At 9/08/2008 1:53 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rising Unemployment

At 9/09/2008 9:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

IBD has posted a graph that seems to show that we are IN a recession! You might also look at this graph which also suggests that we're in a recessionary period.


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