Sunday, August 10, 2008

Current Subprime Mortgage Stats

The chart above is from NY Federal Reserve data on Nonprime Mortgage Conditions in the United States for June 2008. Based on those data, the chart below shows the current distribution of housing units:
Note that the 3 million subprime mortgages represent only 2.6% of 116 million total housing units, and only 17% of subprime loans (510,000) are in foreclosure or REO. As a percent of total housing units, the subprime mortgages in foreclosure or REO represent less than 1/2 of 1 percent of all housing units (0.44%).


At 8/11/2008 8:18 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Sorry for the offtopic post:

qt, juandos, obloodyhell,

You win. I stop posting as of now. I hope this makes you happy. I want people to be happy.

You are just too impulsive and nervous to share blog posts with. You know everything and you just wait to pull the trigger, you have nothing to learn.

Dr. Perry, buggy professor and the nice rest, all the best. Keep up the good work.

P.S. In game theory and dynamic programming, accepting a temporary defeat, or loss, maybe the necessary step for being victorious at the end.

At 8/11/2008 9:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

How does this graph handle double posts due to the owners of rental property having a mortgage?

At 8/11/2008 10:11 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


I'm sorry you feel that way. I regret that you are taking this decision.

None of us knows everything. We are neither perfect nor infallible. We hopefully learn from our mistakes and we make lots of them.

I see many qualities in you that bring back very painful memories. I hope you find what you are looking for.

Best wishes.

At 8/11/2008 10:18 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Funny that sophist would actually call anyone impulsive and a know it all. I stop by often, and I have never seen anyone so obviously bombastic, self-absorbed, or unwilling to acknowledge faults in their own logic. Good riddance.

At 8/11/2008 10:48 AM, Blogger juandos said...

"I have never seen anyone so obviously bombastic, self-absorbed, or unwilling to acknowledge faults in their own logic. Good riddance"...

Personally I can't disagree with these sentiments at all...

Did anyone else note this other nugget in the Opinion Journal?

Byrd's Bad Idea Is Back

Senator Robert Byrd (D., W.Va.) and a few bipartisan pals snuck this protectionist gift into law in 2000 by attaching it to a spending bill. Congress repealed it in 2005, but not before the provision did great harm to America's trading reputation and U.S. exporters after being declared illegal by the World Trade Organization. Now with a new Congress, and in an election year, Mr. Byrd and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown are once again poised to sneak the provision into law...

At 8/11/2008 12:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Byrd amendment ran afoul of WTO rules. It likely will not fly.

At 8/11/2008 12:33 PM, Blogger juandos said...

Hey qt, I had considered the WTO rulings after reading the commentary...

Consider that Obama was making noises back in February about renegotiating or opting out of NAFTA I wouldn't be suprised that the Dems would make similer threats towards the WTO in order to 'buy' more votes...

After all what can one do but go by the words these people say?

Considering that Obama has an economy killing junk science based energy plan, its not a real big stretch to think he would find other ways to kill the economy...

At 8/11/2008 1:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


My apologies. I read the link after I posted. Felt a bit dumb when I read it halfway into the first paragraph.

Have to agree. The Obama plan looks like a real economy killer.

The "feel good" electric car provision does not tell us where Obama would find the electricity since conservation & renewables will not be sufficient. No provisions are made for the expansion of nuclear. How far will $1,000 go in terms of capital costs to improve energy efficiency or install renewables? $1k won't even buy a solar panel sufficient to generate 180 watts of power (enough to power 1 light bulb).

Maybe, he really is the Green Hornet.

On the other hand, his positions change so often, do we really know what he would do?

Can't say I agree with everything McCain proposes (ie. the gas tax holiday) but it's easier to know what you are getting.

Quo vadis?

At 8/11/2008 4:03 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> You know everything and you just wait to pull the trigger, you have nothing to learn

sophist: just learn. ASK QUESTIONS, stop trying to provide answers directly.

Stop making pronouncements of your own views which are so readily, demonstrably lacking in logical rigor that they beg to be shredded.

This isn't us not wanting you to be here. We just think you don't know a fraction of what you claim to know.

You make statements of certainty which are blatantly at odds which things already stated here (usually in other postings) by Dr. Perry (I speak especially about your perception of the situation in Russia), without any effort to justify WHY you (or your sources, virtually always unstated) are right and him wrong.

Occasionally, you actually do come up with a valid point or question... but it's usually buried in al the other crap you post.

Stop being a sophist, and use the Socratic method -- "I thought it worked like 'x'? I ask that because of what I read (link)here and (link)here. How does that play against what you've said here?"

This engages others in a discussion of both your observation and those of Dr. Perry, and the basis and merits of each.

You express your own views without presenting them as factual. You expose both your own reasoning and information to verification and commentary by others.

More critically, it can help YOU see where the flaws in your own reasoning process (and/or the vetting process for identifying information sources), which I suspect are legion. From that, hopefully, you can derive what I believe would be a much better system for forming your own viewpoints.

You still get to form your own opinions -- everyone will read Dr. Perry's notes, your questions, the responses, and comments about all the elements by all and sundry -- and come to different conclusions based on weighting factors and/or acceptance/rejection of the various data sources and arguments.

And I think most people would be far less caustic to you if you used this approach -- at least, as long as you carefully considered the questions beforehand against other data already exposed on the blog.

I regularly go searching back through the last six months' postings for a link to some or other point or information from the blog. This makes me aware of the age of some data, among other things.

In one discussion, I was recalling, at one point, something that it turned out dated all the way back to March of '08, which was no longer applicable to the argument I was forming. So I had to revise it or drop that point.

In another case, I made a claim which I thought was based on something I'd read in the blog, but, on getting called on it, could not re-locate it on this blog or any others I frequent. I'm sure the data was being recalled correctly, but, lacking any link, I had to concede the point as unverifiable.

The posters on this blog expect a measure of rigor*. Your posts have lacked that rigor. You can take that and go away, if you want, or you can figure out how to post in that context.

*I think my posts have sufficient rigor. If they ever don't, I'm not going to whine because someone hoists me on my own petard and says "OBH, you're an idiot. Here's why." -- as long as they make good on the "why" part (I'd bet the Doc could, if he wanted). Hopefully, they'll try and correct me politely before getting annoyed, as I don't think such an occurrence would be common. But if it ever is or was, by all means, lay into me for it.

At 8/11/2008 4:11 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

>>Byrd's Bad Idea Is Back

from that:

> Idaho's Micron semiconductor company won the jackpot, with $37,938,402

THOSE $#%^%^$%#^ prick bastards. I bought around 30 of their 256 mb RAM chips as a company's IT rep, over the course of about a year, some years back. I got something like a 30%-50% defective rate on them, usually after pulling out hair trying to identify the source of intermittent problems.

NEVER buy Micron.

They suck.

Back in the 1990s, they used to be a good name brand, but now they clearly exist by extortion of the actual market itself.

Their company officers should be stripped naked, greased up with deer fat, and set down naked in the middle of the Yukon.



At 8/11/2008 4:16 PM, Blogger OBloodyHell said...

> Have to agree. The Obama plan looks like a real economy killer.

O for "Orifice"

Clearly, that's what your orifice will look like after Obama's done with the country's economy, foreign policy, etc. ...

At 8/11/2008 5:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"You win"

It isn't about winning or scoring points at your expense. That was the point. You got the wind knocked out of you and it's time to get back on the horse.

The more we push our ideas down other people's throats and desparage their intelligence for not agreeing with our positions, the more people recoil. One simply pushes them away.

We all have a great deal in common despite widely ranging personal philosophies and socio-economic backgrounds. Having you withdraw doesn't give me or anyone else pleasure. You have pushed every button on my console, but your withdrawal still represents a loss to me. It is not the loss of a favorite punch bag but the loss of a voice, an intelligence.

Instead of withdrawing, consider the alternative. As they say on the Enterprise: Engage!

Not in winning, or losing or fighting but exploring ideas with those of us who share this same desire in the quest for knowledge. We don't have to agree on every subject but listen and be open to learn from others.

At 8/11/2008 5:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not sure how we got from sub-prime to Obama's plans for energy but an interesting take by Charles Krauthammer on the latest twists.

At 8/11/2008 5:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Question: Why are averages reported instead of medians? The data set is asymmetrical with a long tail of high-dollar mortgages. I suspect that the median mortgage balance is much less than the mean mortgage balance of $180,000.


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