Saturday, April 12, 2008

World GDP Share:Emerging Economies Surpass US

The chart above was created using World GDP data from the IMF, U.S. GDP data from the BEA via FRED, and 2008 forecasts from the IMF for world GDP and U.S. GDP. The U.S. share of world GDP fell below 26% in 2007 for the first time since 1996, and is expected to fall below 25% in 2008 (24.76%) for the first time since 1980.

Reason? The significant growth in the emerging market economies, especially in the last five years. The emerging economies surpassed the U.S. in 2007 for share of world GDP (see chart below): U.S. share fell to just below 26% vs. the emerging economies' share of 27.4%.


At 4/13/2008 8:52 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

GDP being an aggregate product of output the individuals in any nation.

I'm not sure, but last i knew, while the US Latin American population is booming, the overall population in the US is actually fairly stagnant. We aren't growing.

The world body is definitely growing, as food becomes more available though efficiency. The population is growing, and with it manufacturing technologies which create a higher output per person avg.

The US could actually be experiencing higher personal output, but if we are looking at percentages alone, it may appear we are lagging the world in development.

What is sad, is that there are pundits who see the mortgage issue as a stop to the strong economy we have experienced. High employment in 48 states (Michigan, California... another story)Is a valid tell. When someone loses a home because of poor planning, (based on their income) it should not be presented on a chart as a GDP loss, nor pronounced as being recessive activity.

Keep up the good work.

At 4/14/2008 6:07 AM, Blogger Matthew said...

To be honest I think your chart more reflects changes in the external value of the dollar than anything to do with Asia.

Here's one showing both nominal GDP in dollars and PPP (to attempt to remove the exchange rate affects). Story is much the same.


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