Wednesday, January 02, 2008

Is A Recession Looming on the Horizon in 2008?

I say NO in this commentary that has appeared nationally in these papers (circulation in parentheses):

JANUARY 2 — AKRON BEACON JOURNAL (141,073) / Op-Ed “Our economy is strong”

JANUARY 2 — ROCHESTER (MN) POST-BULLETIN (42,391) / Op-Ed “Key indicators show few signs of financial trouble ahead”

JANUARY 1 — KANSAS CITY STAR (261,776) / Op-Ed “No, a recession isn’t looming in 2008”

JANUARY 1 — COLUMBUS DISPATCH (259,000) / Op-Ed “Global economy will keep U.S. economy vibrant”

JANUARY 1 — JANESVILLE (WI) GAZETTE (26,682) / Op-Ed “Expanding global economy will keep U.S. economy humming”

DECEMBER 31 — AUSTIN AMERICAN-STATESMAN (183,952) / Op-Ed “Despite pressure, America’s economy will remain strong in 2008”

DECEMBER 31 — CHARLOTTE OBSERVER (232,000) / Op-Ed “U.S. economy is resilient enough to handle changes”

DECEMBER 29 — YOUNGSTOWN (OH) VINDICATOR (64,763) / Op-Ed “We’re thriving in this economy”


At 1/02/2008 9:02 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Your wrong but you'll figure it out soon enough.

At 1/02/2008 9:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon @ 9:02PM.

Ha! Perry can't even bust you for the missing apostrophe!

Clap harder, Mark. The Tinkerbell Economy needs your help!

At 1/02/2008 11:34 PM, Blogger Jakob said...

Props for actually taking a resolute stand. (even if I don't agree) There's too much murky language out there. I love how you keep it crisp.

At 1/03/2008 10:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

jakob @ 11:34 --

It's not hard to be crisp when you ignore any data that doesn't support your position.

At 1/03/2008 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The OP-ED also appeared in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette.

At 1/03/2008 7:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can anyone dispute that there is considerable "sky-is-falling" hyperbole surrounding the economy of late. One cannot help but notice how positive news is dismissed without even a glance.

Dr. Perry is right to look at fundamentals although it is difficult to know the extent of the effects of the international credit crunch. The most recent U.S. growth figures seem to confirm that there are strong segments in the US economy that are growing offsetting the downturn in the U.S. economy.

The case for recession is still an open question.

At 1/03/2008 7:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Meant to say

"that are offsetting downturn in the US. housing sector".

Just saying that we should not beat up the guy for looking at other parts of the picture. It is, afterall, a fairly difficult call to make.

At 3/17/2008 9:17 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a business consultant and have spend a great deal of time collecting, reviewing, and analyzing a wide variety of economic data. Everything in my independent research supports fully what Dr. Perry has concluded -- what's interesting, though, is that my sources are quite different from Dr. Perry's.

The news media works hard to gain audience attention for circulation and ratings in order to sell ads -- and everyone knows that "bad" news is more interesting and attention grabbing than "good" news. It seems to me that the news media are simply seeking their own best interests when discussing the economy, even as when discussing the war in Iraq, the election process, the environment, or other would-be headline. When's the last time "Boy Scout helps Old Lady Cross Street" was a front page headline?? Likewise, "The Economy is Secure Despite Individual Issues" will not generate near the ad revenue as "Millions Face Foreclosure as Economy Rolls Over."


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