Wednesday, December 19, 2007

The World is Not Running Out of Oil: Fill 'er Up

From todays' Investor Business Daily:

"The world produces about 85 million barrels of oil a day. Global energy demand is expected to rise 55% from 2005-2030. Peak oil theories abound that new discoveries are not keeping up with oil usage. But it's significant that the new demand also is fostering big new discoveries, largely from the very countries where demand is growing most."

The IBD editorial documents recent discoveries of new oil in Brazil, China, Mexico, India and Russia, and discusses how new oil technologies have also significantly increased the supply of oil.

"The world is not running out of oil," said Daniel Yergin, head of Cambridge Energy Research Associates and one of the world's leading oil experts, in a recent interview with Les Echos in Paris.

Go ahead and fill up your SUV, and engage in some guilt-free driving.


At 12/19/2007 11:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Daniel Yergin Watch. He couldn't predict his way out of a wet paper bag.

The crude oil + condensate peak is May 2005. It looks like October 2007 (subject to any revisions) is a new world liquids peak.

At 12/19/2007 12:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I always wanted a truck so big it would take fifty dollars to fill the gas tank.

I put $46.11 in my Pathfinder this week. Careful what you wish for.

At 12/19/2007 12:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

$46? That's cheap. It cost me $125 to fill up my Chevy Duramax a couple weeks ago.

At 12/19/2007 12:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


The web site you link to uses Yergin's wrong predictions about oil prices to reject Yergin's statement about oil supplies.

Predicting prices is like herding cats: next to impossible. Where is data on the increasing oil reserves in the world?

At 12/19/2007 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are you serious, Bob?

Ever heard of googling? Or do you expect to be spoon-fed by the perfessur.

Reserves don't put gasoline in the underground storage containers at the gas station. Production does.

CERA's reference case here is pure fantasy. I wonder where that 16 million liquid barrels per day is coming from by 2010? I wonder if Saudi can boost production by 5 million bbl/day by 2013? It ain't coming, Bob.

BTW, some posters amuse themselves at the oildrum by quoting WTI prices in yergins. One yergin = $38/bbl. The recent price has been fluctuating around 2.50 yergins.

At 12/19/2007 3:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Here is an interesting paper to consider

Debunking the Hubbert Model

At 12/19/2007 3:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This link is better:

Debunking the Hubbert Model

At 12/19/2007 10:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lynch predicted in 2006 that oil would fall to $45 by middle 2007 and from there could fall to the $20s in 2008. He predicted sub $2 gas for this year. How has that worked out?

The first site linked to, gasresources, looks like a crank site with Russian conspiracy theories and so on.

The SEER site is Lynch's company.

I don't see any debunking here.

At 12/21/2007 11:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is so easy to dismiss the power of substitution. Daily, trillions of mouse clicks, phone calls downloads are being substituted for physical actions that would have required more energy by factors of 10 to 1,000 and even more. The pace of substitution is speeding up. We will never run out of oil because the day will come when other sources are cheaper. The process of "fertilizing" microbes could turn trillions of tons of coal and oil into clean burning "natural" gas.


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