Sunday, December 16, 2007

Market Signals Suggest Low Inflation, Stable Dollar

The top chart above (click to enlarge), shows the one-year percentage forward premiums and discounts for the USD vs. other currencies, based on current quotes for one-year forward exchange rates. The USD is now selling at a one-year forward premium vs. at least a dozen currencies, suggesting that the value of the USD has stabilized and might start appreciating in 2008.

The bottom chart above displays gold futures trading on the NYMEX, and shows moderate annual increases in the price of gold over the next 4 years of about 4%. Since gold is a hedge against inflation, the moderate increases in gold prices through 2011 indicate that there are no inflationary pressures building in the U.S. economy.

Bottom Line: These direct market signals suggest that: a) the fall of the USD is probably over and we can expect an appreciation of the USD vs. the pound, rupee, peso, etc., and b) the current rise in inflation (4.29% increase through November 2007) is probably temporary, and we can expect lower inflation in 2008 and beyond. See related previous post here.


At 1/02/2008 7:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the measure of inflation is wrong ( which it is), then how will we know if it is under control or not? The "core index" manipulation along with "substitution" and "hedonics" make the current measure of inflation deceitful, inaccurate and misleading. This issue needs to be exposed and corrected.


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