Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
The chart above (click to enlarge) displays futures trading on Intrade.com for the most traded contracts. The most current trading indicates that Hillary is about a 2:1 favorite over Obama (61% to 31% chance of being the Democratic nominee), and Giuliani has more than 2:1 lead over Romney (40.2% vs. 18.6% chance of being the Republican nominee), based on hundreds of thousands of outstanding contracts. 
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
2 Comments:
I guess that means it's time to short Hillary and Rudy.
P.S. IXBK - down 4.27% today, but I didn't make any money shorting it because you've quite touting the bank stocks lately. Thanks for nothing.
It's rumored that George Soros loves to play games with Intrade. Volume is so thin, he can manipulate the figures for practically nothing. Great sport.
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