Wednesday, October 25, 2006

Happy 5th Anniversary, Economic Expansion

As we celebrate the 5th anniversary of the iPod in October, let's also get ready to celebrate another important upcoming 5th anniversary: In November, it will be the fifth anniversary of the current economic expansion, which started in November 2001. The National Bureua of Economic Research is the offical national authority on business cycle dates, see its official business cycle reference dates here, back to before the Civil War.

The last record-setting 120-month economic expansion lasted from March 1991 to March 2001, and the last recession lasted 8 months from March 2001 to October 2001. Then the current economic expansion started in November 2001, and therefore November 2006 will mark the 5th anniversary of this expansionary phase of the business cycle.

The average economic expansion is 52 months, so the current 60-month expansion is already longer than average. And we are half way to the 120-month record of the last expansion.

Happy 5th Birthday, U.S. Economic Expansion!


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