Sunday, November 27, 2011

Intrade Update: The Gingrich Surge

Intrade odds for Gingrich are up to an all-time high of 19.3% and Romney's odds are down to 60.6%, the lowest since early October.

12 Comments:

At 11/27/2011 3:32 PM, Blogger juandos said...

It don't matter what Gingrich's inTrade or poll numbers are, he'll never be able to live this down...

 
At 11/27/2011 4:21 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

I am sorry Mark but aren't most of the previous candidates that you had surging now toast? So why should we pay attention to this 'surge?'

 
At 11/27/2011 4:40 PM, Blogger Mark J. Perry said...

The Republican race is a fluid, dynamic situation that changes daily. The Intrade odds are a market-based metric to assess the current political situation at a given point in time. When there are big changes or developing trends, it might be interesting news to some readers, so I provide periodic updates. If you disagree with any of the surges, you can certainly bet against them and make some money. And feel free to ignore Intrade posts if you don't find them interesting.

 
At 11/27/2011 5:47 PM, OpenID Sprewell said...

That Gingrich 20% is the dumb money, I'd gladly bet against them if it got any bigger. Only reason I wouldn't do it yet is the odds aren't that great, I'd have to bet $100 to win $125, which isn't much compared to the more "longshot" bets that are mispriced, like Bachmann or Huntsman. I'd rather bet that $100 on one of them getting the nomination, particularly Huntsman. Gingrich will never win the nomination, let alone the presidency, just because of the way he looks, roly poly with squinty eyes. The American populace is far too superficial for that, before you even start looking at all his gaffes, like attacking the Paul Ryan plan earlier this year.

 
At 11/28/2011 12:21 AM, Blogger arbitrage789 said...

The Dems are probably licking their chops at the prospect of Gingrich winning the nomination.

Plenty of skeletons to drag out of the closet; plenty of quotes to take out of context.

 
At 11/28/2011 9:42 AM, Blogger VangelV said...

The Republican race is a fluid, dynamic situation that changes daily. The Intrade odds are a market-based metric to assess the current political situation at a given point in time. When there are big changes or developing trends, it might be interesting news to some readers, so I provide periodic updates. If you disagree with any of the surges, you can certainly bet against them and make some money. And feel free to ignore Intrade posts if you don't find them interesting.

The contest is also rigged. Candidates who are polling well do not get heard in the debates as much as those that trail far behind. The Party has tried to meddle. So has the mainstream press. The odds are not honest as they would be in Vegas where any anomaly would be hit by the wise guys. As such, the odds do not have the same meaning as they do in sporting activities.

So far the only value of the postings about surges is to see just who the establishment is hyping.

 
At 11/28/2011 10:24 AM, Blogger morganovich said...

2 observations:

1. i would not rule gingrich out. he is going to be the prime beneficiary of the others that drop out. perry, cain and huntsman supporters are not going to line up behind romney.

2. newt's skeletons are well known and he can speak very articulately abut them and draw important contrasts. he's already being proactive about it. i doubt that anything they can sling at him will do more damage than he will inflict upon the teleprompter reader in chief when they debate. unlike last time, obama has a record to defend now and cannot run just on platitudes and blaming the other guy. newt would eviscerate him.

 
At 11/28/2011 3:53 PM, Blogger Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

My preference is still for a brokered convention with Petraeus, Daniels, Christie or Huckabee being the nominee. With the party rule changes toward proportional delegates prior to April 1 (28 states), this is a real posibility this year. Short them all.

Ron Paul should get 10-15% of delegates prior to April 1 based on his fervent supporters.

Mitt Romney will probably get the most votes, but should only get about 30-35% of the delegates.

This leaves 50-60% to other candidates that may rise and fall during the nomination period. The problem for Romney is that 30-35% is a long way from getting enough to be the nominee.

The upside to a brokered convention is that we won't have to listen to negative campaign ads about the nominee all Summer long.

I'll cast my vote for the 3rd or 4th place candidate when I get to vote to spread the delegates.

 
At 11/28/2011 5:22 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

My preference is still for a brokered convention with Petraeus, Daniels, Christie or Huckabee being the nominee. With the party rule changes toward proportional delegates prior to April 1 (28 states), this is a real posibility this year. Short them all.

That would be great. Let us kill the Republican Party just as the Federalist Party and the Whig Party were killed off before. Petraeus, Daniels, Christie or Huckabee are all incompetent statists who are overrated because they have never been under much scrutiny.

 
At 11/29/2011 4:15 PM, Blogger Junkyard_hawg1985 said...

"Petraeus, Daniels, Christie or Huckabee are all incompetent statists who are overrated because they have never been under much scrutiny."

My preference from this list is Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Government in Indiana has shrunk under his leadership. There are fewer government workers in Indiana vs. any time since 1975 and the lowest number of government workers per capita of any state in America. Over 70% of state employes have HSA's for health care. Indiana has a AAA bond rating. These items make Indiana different, not a statist government.

Mitch's issue is getting his wife on board.

A brokered convention does not kill a party. Harding won the presidency after getting the nomination at a brokered convention. He also shrunk government in the face of pressure to grow it.

 
At 11/29/2011 4:30 PM, Blogger VangelV said...

My preference from this list is Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels. Government in Indiana has shrunk under his leadership. There are fewer government workers in Indiana vs. any time since 1975 and the lowest number of government workers per capita of any state in America. Over 70% of state employes have HSA's for health care. Indiana has a AAA bond rating. These items make Indiana different, not a statist government.

While it might make it interesting to have an Arab-American in the White House, Daniels is a corporatist beltway insider, hardly the type of person who is capable of doing what needs to be done to eliminate the deficit, bring back the troops, and cut the size of government by a substantial amount.

 
At 11/29/2011 4:31 PM, Blogger VangelV said...


A brokered convention does not kill a party. Harding won the presidency after getting the nomination at a brokered convention. He also shrunk government in the face of pressure to grow it.


It will kill the party if it is seen as a ploy to elect the typical power insider who does not represent voters but panders to special interests.

 

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