Intrade Odds: Gingrich Surges Ahead of Cain
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CARPE DIEM
Professor Mark J. Perry's Blog for Economics and Finance
Sunday, November 06, 2011
About Me
- Name: Mark J. Perry
- Location: Washington, D.C., United States
Dr. Mark J. Perry is a professor of economics and finance in the School of Management at the Flint campus of the University of Michigan. Perry holds two graduate degrees in economics (M.A. and Ph.D.) from George Mason University near Washington, D.C. In addition, he holds an MBA degree in finance from the Curtis L. Carlson School of Management at the University of Minnesota. In addition to a faculty appointment at the University of Michigan-Flint, Perry is also a visiting scholar at The American Enterprise Institute in Washington, D.C.
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9 Comments:
Fighting for the bottom 10%.
You are a moron.
Cain has about 30% and Gingrich has over 10%. Clearly this graph refers to Intrade's best market-based estimate of their odds of winning 100% of the nomination, not "fighting over the bottom 10%.
And even if you add up their current Intrade percentage likelihood of winning the nomination, the total exceeds 13%.
You are a moron. The total does not matter.
I guess having a marital affair is better than being sued for sexual harassment on intrade graphs.
Hah!, good one.
Newt has zero chance of ever getting nominated. I'd short him heavily but I'd have to bet $9 to win $10, so at those tiny odds, who cares. I still like Huntsman as the longshot, anti-Romney candidate, he's polling tied for fourth with Gingrich in New Hampshire right now. The key is if he can build an "anyone but Romney" coalition and take Mitt out. Considering Paul and Perry's camp just don't like Mitt and will never nominate him, while the hard-core conservatives would prefer someone other than Mitt and keep flitting about from Bachmann to Perry to Cain, Huntsman certainly has a shot at doing it. Whether he'll actually pull it off, who knows.
Which has higher odds: the chance of someone other than a Democrat or Republican winning the Presidency or a black winning the Republican nomination? They are both "ain't going to happen" to me.
I think Tim Pawlenty ought to be kicking himself. After Bachmann rose then imploded, Rick Perry rose only to fall. Now Herman Cain seems to be falling. I think if he had stuck it out, Pawlenty would be on the rise.
I like Cain over Gingrich any day, but either would be better for the country. Gingrich wants to reduce the 5% anthropogenic contribution to co2 emissions which I hate, but his budget record is excellent.
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