Sunday, October 02, 2011

Intrade Odds Fall to 21% for Christie to Run

In late trading, the odds of Chris Christie running for president have fallen from 29.5% to 21% (see chart above), putting the chances of a Christie candidacy now at almost 4-to-1. 


At 10/03/2011 1:17 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Christie may not want the job:

“It’s Going to Get a Lot Worse”: ECRI’s Achuthan Says New Recession Unavoidable
Sep 30, 2011

Weakness in leading economic indicators has become so pervasive the Economic Cycle Research Institute now predicts a new recession is unavoidable.

"You haven't seen anything yet. It's going to get a lot worse."


“Most Accurate Economist” to Deliver 2012 Forecast
28 September 2011

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius is the winner of the prestigious Lawrence R. Klein Award for economic forecasting this year, becoming one of only a handful of people to take the award twice.

Hatzius’ forecast for 2012 will include these predictions:

Below-trend growth of 2.4 percent on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis for 2012, with a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 9.4 percent;

A substantial risk of renewed recession;
Core inflation to peak early in the year;
Likely additional quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve;
Long-term interest rates edging up, but staying far below the historic norm.

At 10/03/2011 1:59 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Moreover, a Dr Doom - A Gary Shilling - predicted recessions in the U.S. and China:

Article excerpts Jun to Aug 2011

The U.S. Economy:

“I’m predicting another recession next year (2012).”

The economy, he says, is like a four-cylinder engine, and a recovery usually requires all four to be firing.

They are consumer spending, employment, housing and the reversal of the inventory cycle.

Shilling thinks only the last is really recovering.

A further 20% decline in home prices would raise the percentage of homes worth less than the value of their mortgages to a stunning 40% (Robert Shiller, co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price index, has a similar prediction).

If this happens, “you know what that will do to consumer spending,” said Shilling. “That’s a recession — an easy forecast.”

The Obama administration’s own attempt to “fix” the housing market — the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP) — was, in Shilling’s words, “a miserable failure.”

As for investing, Shilling has returned to an old favorite (as of June 24, 2011): the 30-year Treasury bond, which is currently yielding around 4.21%. “I think they’re going to 3%,” he said. “I think [the 10-year is] going to 2%.”

I hesitate to second guess him on housing, where his track record has been stellar.

China's economy-housing bubble-commodities bubble:

The hard landing that I foresee for China will probably prick the global commodity bubble, which is already showing signs of topping out.

Our own Fed, using much more sophisticated policy tools, has tried to slow an overheating U.S. economy 12 times in the post-World War II era. Eleven of those attempts failed and resulted in recessions.

What odds do you give the Chinese, who need to maintain an 8% GDP growth rate in order to employ new job entrants?

Speculation by multiple-home owners has pushed new apartment prices in Beijing from 32 times average aftertax income in 2006 to a ridiculous 57 times.

I’ve studied many bubbles over the years, and concentrated on predicting their demises.

Commodities show every sign of being in one.

A Gary Shilling, bachelor’s degree in physics, magna cum laude, from Amherst College, master’s degree and doctorate in economics at Stanford University.

At 10/03/2011 2:06 AM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

And one more gloomy forecast:

NAR forecasts slow economic growth in 2011-12
September 29, 2011

The National Association of Realtors expects U.S. GDP growth of 1 percent in 2011 and 1.3 percent in 2012, compared to a previous forecast, released last month, that anticipated GDP growth of 1.6 percent this year and 2 percent in 2012.

Actual U.S. GDP rose 3 percent in 2010, and declined 3.5 percent in 2009.

At 10/03/2011 2:26 AM, OpenID Sprewell said...

As much as I like what little I have seen of Christie, I have to wonder if he's the right guy to head the ticket. As far as I'm concerned, the only use for the President is whether he will veto the will of Congress and as a general salesman for his party and unfortunately govt. The Republicans will have heavy majorities in the House and Senate next year and they can begin to pass a balanced budget amendment and other needed spending cuts, that is, if they actually mean what they say this time. All that matters from the President is whether he will get in the way or pull the veto: Obama will veto, no Republican Presidential candidate would dare.

Given that, all that matters is getting some Republican in office and the most electable is Romney. Christie gets a lot of attention because he seems very smart and capable, but that is not what sways the average, dumb voter: they go for the bland likability of a Romney, a trait Obama perfected in 2008, in a particularly vacuous form. I think Huntsman could do well too, but I recently saw an interview with him and he seems almost too smart for his own good. As much as I personally can't vote for the bland Pepsi likability of Romney (I'll vote libertarian like I do in every Presidential election), that is what sells and is likely what will unseat Obama.

Peak, I would bet large sums of money that almost none of those pessimistic predictions will come to pass.

At 10/03/2011 4:44 AM, OpenID American Delight said...

Intrade Odds Rise 21% for Christie to Eat Jelly Doughnut.

At 10/03/2011 5:17 AM, Blogger sethstorm said...

The Republicans will have heavy majorities in the House and Senate next year and they can begin to...
...ramrod through unwanted legislation.

At 10/03/2011 10:05 AM, Blogger Paul said...


"All that matters from the President is whether he will get in the way or pull the veto: Obama will veto, no Republican Presidential candidate would dare."

You need more than just GOP mirror fogger in the Oval Office. You need someone who can articulate why this needs to be done in order to bring along public opinion, or else the tide will turn in the next election and the gains will be reversed. As Milton Friedman said, we neeed to create an environment where even the "wrong people do the right thing" because it's politically profitable. A great communicator like Christie is exactly what we need right now.

At 10/03/2011 2:56 PM, Blogger jcarroll1948 said...

Sprewell. For what it's worth, I consider a vote for a 3rd party candidate for President the equivalent of not voting. If I were you, I would not waste my time going to the polls; of course, maybe there are some other issues you do care about on the ballot.

As for Christie, excitement now will wilt when Republican voters learn his views on the issues; immigration, gun control, global warming. I don't think he will run and, if he does, he won't get the nomination.

At 10/03/2011 5:36 PM, Blogger PeakTrader said...

Sprewell says "Peak, I would bet large sums of money that almost none of those pessimistic predictions will come to pass."

Does that mean you're long the stock market?

Do you have anything to support your statement, or do you just feel lucky?

At 10/03/2011 8:01 PM, OpenID Sprewell said...

Paul, a mirror fogger will do, particularly when a mirror fogger like Romney has a better chance of getting elected than Christie. As much as Republicans love Christie, I'm sure he comes off as abrasive to most of the dum-dums who vote, which is why the guy you'd want to have a beer with, ie Bush or Obama, almost always wins. The last "great communicator" ran up large deficits, making Obama's current enormous deficits politically feasible; raised the payroll tax to "save" SS; and generally backtracked enough that Ron Paul left the Republican party. Any meaningful change will be driven by a Congress that realizes it's time to do something, not by some talker-in-chief who gives the illusion of control.

jcarroll, and joining the masses to be yet another vote for the two-party system isn't throwing your vote away? Please. At least my vote sends a clear signal for smaller govt, unlike the millions voting for the two major parties. I don't go to the polls, mail-in does just fine, but it is pretty silly to think the Presidential vote is the only reason to go to the polls: that's the last thing that matters. I don't know if you've noticed, but Perry and Huntsman have similar views to Christie and both are doing alright. Hell, Romney even has the Romneycare albatross hung around his neck and he's winning. Republicans don't care about any of those issues as much as they want Obama gone. Christie would do very well and I think he or Mitch Daniels is the best candidate. Christie would easily get the nomination, but he is riskier with independents. Since the Congress will be dominated by Republicans, it hardly matters which Republican presidential nominee sits on the veto.

Peak, I don't put money in the stock casino. The statements you link are so negative they have almost no chance of happening, look at all the actual economic indicators Mark links to. And most of all, I have believed that we are on the verge of another tech boom for sometime now. While nobody knows exactly when it will hit, I would rate the probability of it not having hit by 2016 as very low, less than 5%.


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